1998 Trade Page

(Note: for subsequent analyses, please remember that Round 11 is the first round)

Argenta Bombers -> Cape Hatteras Lumber (CHL) under new owner Patrick Dolwick
Expansion Teams:

Martinez Wolfpack (MTZ) - Greg Garner
Perth Heat (PER) - Dean Ashley
Las Vegas Cards (LVC) - Ricky Watts
Acme Animaniacs (ACM) - Steve Kuffrey


Carolina sends Jose Canseco
South Texas sends 14th and 16th (#49 & #75)

Jose fits pretty well in South Texas, given their historic weakness against LHP. Carolina picks up a couple of valuable draft picks for their fourth outfielder, and it also gives the Hurricanes one less player to worry about in the expansion draft.

The trade works out pretty good for the Solicitors, as Canseco hits 47 HRs and drives in 129. Canseco was to add another 30 taters in 1999, but this was for Tidewater. Carolina turned the two picks into Mike Bordick, who posted .221/7/42 and .238/7/48, but did fill an important position for the Hurricanes in two trips to the World Series. 

Antioch sends Ugueth Urbina
Raleigh sends Andy Pettitte, 17th (#91)

Again Raleigh sacrifices same of their scarce starting pitching to fill another need. Yes, it was too bad about Mark Wohlers, but this forces Dean's hand in protecting Irabu over DeShields in the expansion draft.  Of course, Urbina is better than just about anybody, but somebody has to pitch the first eight innings.  From the Antioch view, Pettitte rightly wasn't that good this year, but better than nobody, and the Wizards pick up yet another draft pick.

Urbina was one of the premier relievers in the league in 1998, going 5-3, 1.63 with 17 saves. He worsened to 4-10, 3.64, 22 Sv a year later. Pettitte went 24-18 over the two years for a pretty good Antioch team.

Bellingham sends Jamie Moyer
Cape Hatteras sends Bret Boone, 15th (#58)

On first glance it looks like a coup for the Pilots, who pick up a a 5 years in age and a draft pick, both players being eminently useful. Boone's 23 HRs is 3 behind the Belingham team lead. And that #58 is 62 spots ahead of anything Bellingham previously had. But despite the doubts about Moyer, he's rated as the 13th most useful pitcher in the league, and there's no way that can be replaced. Randy and Roger and two days of rain isn't even alliterative. Hatteras has plenty of draft picks, and this  allows Easley to go to 2nd, rather than be a bad defensive SS. Better trade from the Cape perspective, especially when you consider a year ago, Bret had an O+S of .630.

BELLINGHAM REPLY: As owner of the Pilots - I take exception to the Commish's analysis on 3 fronts.  Number 1 - Moyer gives up 3 home runs in the first inning against Carolina in game 3 of the playoffs.  Number 2 - A .446 slugging average by lefties against Moyer.  Carolina with Erstad and Burnitz and Griffey???? Yuk.  Number 3 - Rosehaven is going to win 120 games anyway - so what's the difference.  :) Bellingham gets younger and has a bonafide 2nd baseman to stop the commish's comments about Miguel Cairo. 

Moyer went 29-25 for Hatteras over two years, while Bret Boone played a decent 2B for the Pilots over the period. This pick helped the Pilots get Tony Gwynn, so overall it's a wash.

Springfield sends David Justice and Derek Lowe
Cape Hatteras sends 13th (#37), 17th (#79)

Only problem with this from the Lumbers' perspective is that it swells their ranks to 14, meaning they can't dump a Ken Cloude or a Brian Johnson at the end of the draft. If you work through this, it probably means they'll also lose one of the two players who instead have to be exposed, like a Marrero or Baldwin type. With Justice departing, McGriff gets kept for the Homers. A 37th should make up for that (assuming that the Homers rearrange their OFs - - neither Lankford, Jordan, not Ramirez plays LF), but somebody new will also have to be lost in the expansion draft as well.

The picks were Masato Yoshii and Bill Simas, who combined to go 24-17 in a starting and a relief role. Justice was somewhat mediocre in 98, going .254/16/74, but was signed and did somewhat better in 99. Lowe went 9-3, 3.90 in 111 innings of middle relief. He should have been signed, but wasn't, and wound up a first round pick for Antioch in 99.

EXPANSION DRAFT    CONCLUDED

Hana sends Joe Randa, Alan Ashby   
Raleigh sends Ken Caminiti, 11th (#11 overall)

Interesting trade, especially given they are division rivals, and probably will continue to be so under proposed realignment. Pitching is hard to come by, and from that perspective, it is a trade which Raleigh had to make. Hana's #4 pitcher thus becomes Raleigh's #1 pitcher. On the other hand, the trade leaves Raleigh bereft of picks until #72 which, missing two starters, and 2 or arguably 3 position players (if you discount Randa), is not a good thing.

Caminiti is one of the best .252 hitters in the league, after considering park effects. In Hana, he'll fit right in, where the strategy is a return to Earl Weaver baseball (with a small b). Pitch well, and wait for the three run homer. Even moving 90 feet on a single is a challenge. Hana now has three 1st round picks, one of which ought to go to draft Linford Christie.

Ashby threw 424 innings of .500 ball with a sub 4 ERA over the two years. The 11th pick was Orlando Hernandez, who had the same stats in 100 innings less. Once 2000 is done, that should even out. Randa lasted only 16 games with Raleigh until he was packed up with a couple of draft picks to Vienna in return for John Valentin. Caminiti hit 33 HRs for the Storm in 98 before a hurt but effective 1999. Small advantage Hana.

South Texas sends Jason Giambi, 11th (#15 overall)
Perth sends 11th, 12th (#6 & #27 overall)

It's about what Giambi was worth, somewhere between a first and a second round pick. Four years younger Travis Lee might have been a better pick for an expansion team, but there was no guarantee that he would be available at pick #6. The Solicitors already had Edgar Martinez to play 1B; Giambi's not even much of a better fielder. 

After the draft picks it was Giambi and Lawton for David Wells and Jose Hernandez. Wells (16-3 for SJB in 1998) essentially went for Chuck Knoblauch, so this looks like it turns out very badly for the Solicitors. But Lawton and Giambi hadn't done too much for Perth (now Detroit) through 1999, and Giambi was traded to Vienna in 2000 for probably less than he was worth.

Minnesota Millers -> Oklahoma Thunder (OKL) under new owner Greg Bilbruck
Nürnberg Knights -> New Jersey Patriots (NJP) under new owner Don Hirsch
Charlotte Horseflies -> Pocono Pines Buffalo Wings (PPB)
Dixie Chickens -> Vienna Penguins  (VIE) under new owner Bruce Backup

New Jersey sends Al Leiter, John Johnstone, David Segui
Carolina sends Darrin Erstad, 17th pick (99th overall)

Certainly a very good trade for the Hurricanes who pick up a #2 starter and a good middle reliever without sacrificing anything at any position.  First trade for the new Patriots, and it's clear that youth is needed to rebuild the franchise. Erstad and Segui have almost identical 98 MLB stats (aside from the speed aspects), so the question is whether Al Leiter is worth the 7 year age difference, and the higher ceiling inherent therein. Leiter had a very good 98 MLB campaign, but owner Don Hirsch probably also noted that while Leiter had good seasons before in MLB, in IIBL he's a combined 34-50 over the past few years. We'll simplify and say that Johnstone would have been drafted around #99 anyway, he might have been drafted earlier.

The trade that won the World Series for the Hurricanes. Leiter went 18-6 in 98 with a 3.25 ERA, and Johnstone was an effective reliever all season. Leiter had a bad 99 and was shipped to Madiba in a player dump while the other two weren't signed. Erstad had a nice .277/17/67 season, but has been a mixed bag ever since.

New Jersey sends Paul Quantrill, Woody Williams
Bellingham sends Miguel Cairo, 24th round pick (264th overall)

If you've gotten this far you probably realize this writer is not a big Miguel Cairo fan. On the other hand, 24 year old Ex fielding 2Bs don't grow on trees. But, to be consistent, the premise would be that it's more probable that he lose the Ex rating before he learns to hit. Woody Williams and Paul Quantrill are nothing for New Jersey faithful (are there any yet?) to lose sleep over, but that is about 290 decent innings which will need to be replaced. And for Bellingham, who didn't have a lot of draft picks, this was an efficient way to pick up 290 decent innings.

Cairo actually turned in two halfway decent years for the Patriots. Quantrill was decent in relief, while Williams was a disaster as a starter.

New Jersey sends Rick Reed
Cape Hatteras sends Juan Encarnacion, 16th round pick (71st overall)

It was always a little surprising that the old Knights chose to rebuild with a 30+year old pitcher with their 4th pick last year earned from 1996's miserable campaign of 68-94, but at least Reed gave the Knights two servicable years. (Which is more than most of the other 12 pitchers in last year's first round have given.) Reed went a decent 10-15, 3.47 for the Knights last year for a team that won even fewer games than the year before, so Reed can be risked. And, Encarnacion's big risk is that he learns the strike zone. Going forward the New Jersey lineup looks like C-Lieberthal; INF-Clark, Cairo, Stocker, vacant; OF-Erstad, Andruw, Encarnacion. Given Lieberthal and Stocker will need upgrading if the Patriots are to move over .500, there are still some significant holes. But not as significant as the current pitching staff, which consists only of Brian Anderson and Darren Oliver.

For Hatteras, Reed looks just a little scary with 30 HRs allowed in Shea, but he's a good pickup for the Lumber, whose pitching staff core (Moyer, Finley, Reed) suddenly looks a little old.

Reed went 27-11 for Hatteras and is still plugging away. Encarnacion played sparingly but well in 98, more but poorly in 99, and has since gotten lost in a plethora of trades where the team who acquired him generally did worse off. The #71 was Enrique Wilson, another washout. Advantage Hatteras.

Hana sends Tony Gwynn
Bellingham sends Todd Hollandsworth, 19th (#144), CHL 15th (#58)

Gwynn's come down in value a bit, of course, so this is good value for him. Juan Gonzalez holds down RF for the Storm, Greg Vaughn LF, and Gwynn is getting just a tad old to play CF. Last year, Hana tried him as an unrated CF in 48 games, where he amassed 88 PO (1.8 pg). With Av range Lance Johnson or Bipster pulling down 2.6 pg and 2.14 pg, respectively, that was too many fly balls Tony wasn't getting to.

Hollandsworth dowsn't help as much as the draft picks, he's in an awkward lefty-lefty platoon in CF with Lance Johnson. Hana now has 4 picks in the first 77 to fill one starting spot, 2b, ss, and a closer. For Bellingham, Gwynn bats 2nd and covers for the injured and relatively pathetic Jay Buhner. They have a more difficult situation, drafting no earlier than 120th, with rotation holes at #4 and #5, and lineup holes at lf and ss, and half a catcher needed. Don't feel too sorry though, since their rotation does include Roger and the Unit.

With the #58 pick, Hana got Darryl Hamilton, who was Tony-lite, hitting .319 with 92 runs scored.  Tony hit .356 for the Pilots and then helped get Moises Alou. Todd Hollandsworth turned into Mark Clark, who ate 183 innings fairly ineffectively.

Pocono Pines EagleWings send Brad Ausmus
Montreal Trekkers send 16th (# 74) and  18th (#114)

Two picks for somebody with a .714 O+S demonstrates just how thin catching is. Make you wonder what Springfield might get for Posada. But the Trekkers weren't going to do any better with the draft: Widger is the nearest comparable in terms of plate appearances and offense. He should be long gone by #74, anyway Ausmus is better defensively. Any other solution would have taken two picks.

For Pocono, #s74 and 114 will be the team's first two picks. That's still not enough to cover shortages in the rotation and in the infield, so the question is whether if and which problems he can solve with his blue-chip outfielders.

With the #74, Pocono got Mark Grudzielanek and with the #114, Orlando Cabrera. Ausmus lasted a year and change in Chicago, after which he was shipped out for essentially a 23rd round pick. Cabrera was fairly effective in limited appearances, but took a couple years worth of roster space. Grudzie contributed .298 and .334 batting averages with 172 runs scored over the next two seasons. All in all the trade is a big success for Pocono.

Dresden Blacks send Billy Wagner
Oklahoma Thunder send Darren Dreifort

Just when it appeared that Wagner would take over the Dresden closer role from the unsigned Roberto Hernandez, he gets shipped to Oklahoma to be their closer. Wagner, the 127th pick in the 1995 draft based on his 1/3 inning that year, never was an outright success in Dresden, with ERAs in the 4.70s in his two active years, but he was in integral part of the bullpens which won the last two championships. The Blacks will need to devote a pick or two to help out Jerry DiPoto.

Dreifort, despite his Wichita State pedigree, was an even lower round pick (292nd in 1996). Despite the LA park effects, he was the Millers best pitcher last year as a middle reliever. This year, he'll contribute 180 innings as the Blacks' fourth starter, and next year he's a 5th starter on the Dodgers. The Thunder didn't really need Dreifort's starting innings to get through the season, although Nagy and Dickson could use upgrading.

Dreifort went 9-9, 4.39 and 15-5, 4.69 for the Blacks over the next two years after which he got traded for Randy Wolf. Wagner had two strong years for the Thunder, with ERAs in the low 3s and 43 saves for sub .500 teams. Wagner's 2000 injury gives Dresden a slight advantage.    

Montreal Trekkers send 20th (#162)
New Jersey Patriots send Joey Cora

Only way to put this in perspective is to see which infielder was drafted closest to #162 last year, and it was ... Kurt Abbott. Abbott was real life .748  O+S in 252 AB, Cora is .727 in 602 PA, a better runner but a worse fielder. Age is not important since neither is in much danger of being signed.

Cora was terrible. The Patriots pick was Gregg Olson, who saved 23 games for the Patriots with a sub 4 ERA.

San Juan Bums send Kenny Rogers, Henry Rodriguez
Springfield Homers send Brian Jordan, Jorge Posada

Answers the question posed above in the Brad Ausmus comment. Good trade for both teams, perhaps a little better for the Bums, because of the catcher scarcity value. Jordan would have been playing out of position in LF, so this solves that problem neatly. If we assume Henry for Jordan is about even, the value of 238 IP vs 358 AB at C sheds a different light on the situation. But although this is a major trade, look back one year and figure out if any of these four were on anyone's top ten list. The keys are which ones will have staying power.

Rogers was the key to a Springfield playoff appearance, going 19-9, 2.34 in 1998. When he dropped to 11-11, 4.83 the next year, the Homers dropped too. H-Rod contributed .231/29/86 but wasn't signed. The Bums did better out of the deal. Along with Aaron Sele, both players were shipped to Madiba for Tim Hudson, but while with the Bums, Jordan hit .320 with 41 HRs and 171 RBI over the next 1 1/2 years, while Posada contributed steadily as a catcher. 

Carolina Hurricanes send STX's 14th (#49), STX's 16th (#75), 18th (#123)
Perth Heat send Mike Bordick, 15th (#55), 17th (#86)

Works out to be about a 95th in all. Seems a little cheap to me, but I suppose nobody was offering any better. Last year the closest infielders drafted to that were Bip Roberts (a special case) and Domingo Cedeno (.734 O+S w/365 AB). Mike is .739 with 100 more at bats, and a better fielder. Bordick might also get signed, for whatever that's worth, plus or minus.

Bordick was a necessary cog in the Hurricanes' two world series performances. The picks were largely immaterial. Only Jose Jiminez was signed by Detroit (Perth), but he went 4-14 before being released the year after.

San Juan Bums send 11th (#12), 16th (#73), 17th (#92)
Oklahoma Thunder send Travis Fryman, 18th (#111)

The deal is also expected to include Jeff Fassero for San Juan's first round pick next year, to be concluded after the draft, although neither team is under any obligation to follow through. (There are league rules against trading of picks for any draft other than the current one.)

Both components are aggressive. Fryman for two good picks is agressive, and 36 year old Fassero for a #1 is also aggressive. San Juan probably could have picked up Brosius. Fryman is better, but they would have held a draft pick where they could have one of their holes:  LF,  bullpen depth, and about one and a half starters. Oklahoma's priorities in the draft with #12 are likely to be different from that of the Bums. Paul O'Neill may drop down a few more places.

San Juan traded Fryman for Ventura almost immediately, and Ventura contributed steadily. Fassero (15-10, 4.3 at STX) was shipped out in a deal which brought David Wells (30-13 over the next two years). Thunders' two first round picks acquired were Carl Pavano and Erubiel Durazo. Although both still have potential, this helps explain why they've languished at the bottom. Bubba Trammell was one of the picks, but was lousy and wasn't signed. The other, John Rocker, has not met with much IIBL success. Advantage SJB.

Hana Storm send Bob Tewksbury
Springfield Homers send Rey Ordonez

Not clear who can throw harder, or who can hit better, but Tewks is clearly older. Both teams can be congratulated. Hana, by filling a lineup spot for somebody that old; and Springfield, by filling 148 innings for somebody that pathetic offensively.

Tewks went a respectable 6-9, 3.69. Ordonez was shipped with a 13th round pick for Delino DeShields, making it clear he had negative value. Rey has not had a season > .650 O+S in 1319 career IIBL AB (through 1999).

Dresden Blacks send 16th (#80)
Tidewater Tides send B.J. Surhoff

Dresden drafts a LF. Blacks could have had Brant Brown, but Surhoff is more durable. Tidewater got Billy Taylor with the pick.

Surhoff was a pretty lousy LF (O+S of .726) but did drive in 82 runs. He wasn't signed and then had his career year for Springfield in 1999. Taylor got into 68 games with a 3-3 record, but had an ERA just over 5.

Martinez sends 11th (#4), 12th (#26)
Vienna sends 11th (#1), 15th (#51)

The thought was that Vienna would pass on Kerry Wood. But so did Martinez, who used the pick to draft Drew. Vienna got Beltre with #4, and wound up getting Chavez with #26. Palmer will probably be traded now, and one of those two later.

J.D. Drew and Dennis Reyes for Eric Chavez and Adrian Beltre. Figures to be a net plus for the Penguins over time, but none of this quartet has done much so far for anyone. The key for Vienna is that they were able to recycle Beltre for the first pick in the next draft, which begat Rick Ankiel, which begat Pedro Martinez.

FIRST ROUND OF DRAFT CONCLUDED

Dresden Blacks send 35th
Carolina Hurricanes send Paul Spoljaric

Why not?

Dresden Blacks send Twinkiedome
San Juan Bums send Fenway Park

First stadium trade since Nurnberg and Washington swapped stadia back in 1996. Dresden was getting pretty bored with 70 and indoors, while San Juan was not looking forward to have their lefties, Perez and Fassero, beat up on. Three reasons Dresden might do better there: 1) RH pull hitters McGwire, Biggio, and Charles Johnson, 2) a ground ball pitching staff on natural grass with a Ex-Vg DP combo, and 3)  a pitching staff tough on righties and not that good vs lefties. 380' to right is a long way.

Tidewater Tides send Robin Ventura, 20th (#165), and 22nd (#213)
San Juan Bums send Travis Fryman, 24th round pick (#257)

Very similar players, to the age and position. Ro gets the extra draft pick because of Fryman's better offensive credentials. However, Ventura is the better fielder (this year, anyway) and a "terror". A lefty pull hitter will also help San Juan in their new indoor home.

Fryman: .284/30/103 and .230/3/30. Ventura: .257/22/104 and .275/34/126. Ventura was also outhitting Fryman in 2000 at this writing, and Fryman's 2001 injury makes Ventura and SJB a clear winner.

South Texas Solicitors send Tony Womack, David Wells, and STX 21st (#188)
San Juan Bums send Chuck Knoblauch, Jeff Fassero, SJB 20th (#161)

The deal is also expected to include Tony Womack for Jeff Fassero once the Fassero trade above clears. Neither team is under any obligation to follow through. (There are league rules against trading of picks for any draft other than the current one.)

A major upgrade for the Solicitors at 2B, but gave up their first drafted David Wells to do so. Since Wells and Fassero are both about the same age, there's very little to choose from going forward on that, but this year he will be the ace of the SJB staff. No real significant age difference between Womack and Knoblauch either, but Ro must have read about the decline in 2B skills over time. Womack never had too many to begin with.

As mentioned above, Fassero had one decent year, while Wells went on and on for the Bums. Knoblauch led off, scored 100 runs, and played 2B for the Solicitors over the next two years. Womack wasn't nearly as good, and wound up being unsigned. 

Vienna sends Matt Mantei
Oklahoma Thunder send Terry Steinbach, 20th (#159)

Vienna solves a huge headache at catcher, one which would have taken a couple of draft picks to fill. Thunder pick up another good arm for their pitching staff, although it's not clear at all what they will need to draft to replace Steinbach's AB.

Mantei was 3.96 in 52 innings in 98 and then went 2.62 in 69 innings a year later. About what a catcher is worth. 

South Texas sends Quinton McCracken
Bellingham Pilots send 21st (#192) & 22nd (#216)

Fifth outfielder for the Pilots. He can fill in for Gant and Bernie Williams, when they get their BenGay rubs.

South Texas sends Mark Clark
Hana Storm send Todd Hollandsworth and BEL 19th (#144)

With both Smoltz and Orlando Hernandez less than fulltimers, somebody has to soak up the extra starts. Clark isn't very good, but he's durable, and probably will be good enough to beat bad teams. Don't look for him to pitch all that often against contenders. Hollandsworth moves again, but the 144th was probably a bigger incentive.

Clark was terrible (9-15, 5.03 for a division winner). The pick was Shigetshi Hasegawa, who threw 100 bearable innings. Hollandsworth was a waste of space.

Perth Heat send sends Eric Young
Raleigh Fingers send Scott Spiezio

After the park effects are calculated in, Young is a huge edge over Spiezio, but Spiezio is entering his prime, while Young isn't. It would be more compelling if Spiezio had done better so far in his career, but it's worth a chance.

Spiezio never realized his potential, but he contributed a respectable .751 O+S in 500 PA as a 2B. Problem was, he was signed, and then turned into mush afterwards. Young has been consistently bad, but durable. He was finally shipped to Kiev 2+ years later for Todd Walker, so one would have to conclude that Raleigh (now Lakewood) got the better of the deal.

Bellingham Pilots send Jay Buhner, John Valentin, 23rd round draft pick (#240)
Vienna Penguins send Dean Palmer

The difference between Palmer and Valentin doesn't seem significant enough to warrant a Buhner AND a draft pick, but there were some ominous signs on the Bellingham side which caused this deal. First, Buhner as a 1999 Seattle firstbaseman lowers his value to where he is a marginal signing at best; second, thirty-two year old John Valentin has dropping fairly steadily in value since being a 27HR-20SB SS in 1995 (his major game now seems to be banging doubles off the left field wall in Fenway); and third, Dean Palmer does get to play in Detroit for a while.

Valentin was shipped onward for Joe Randa, and wound up at .230/21/80 for the season. Buhner was awful in his 250 PA appearances with Vienna although he managed 13 HRs. Palmer didn't last long either, getting shipped with Roger Clemens to Montreal for Vinny Castilla. Didn't work out too well for either team.

Second Round of Draft Commences

South Texas trades 140th (Devon White) and 192nd (Mike Stanton)
Vienna trades 126th (Santana)

Troy just couldn't take the chance that a decent starter would be available 14 picks later. Santana joins Gabe White and Wilson Alvarez at the bottom end of the rotation.

Perth trades Brian McRae (taken 131st)
Vienna trades 145th (Tyler Green) and 222nd (Rich DeLucia)

Brian McRae is jus a little old for an expansion team. Perth picks up two pitchers. Green will fit into the rotation (I said this was an expansion team), while DeLucia has the team lead in saves with three.

Vienna trades Devon White (taken 140th)
Montreal trades 210th (Joe Carter)

Vienna trades down 70 picks after Devon White is obviated by McRae. So after all is done Vienna trades 126th, 145th, and 222nd for 131st, 192nd, and 210th. White moves Damon to RF and Bichette to LF, which is a big improvement for the Trekkers.

Cape Hatteras trades Wally Joyner, James Baldwin
Oklahoma trades Derek Bell, 22nd, 23rd, and 24th (#207, #231, #255)

The deal is also expected to include Andres Galarraga for Cape Hatteras' first round pick next year, to be concluded after the draft, although neither team is under any obligation to follow through. (There are league rules against trading of picks for any draft other than the current one.)

Big time fire sale in Oklahoma. The Sooners are in serious need of atbats.

Bell had a monster half season in Hatteras, with an O+S of .998.  Neither Joyner nor Baldwin were signed, so the trade makes little sense for the Thunder.  

Bellingham trades 1999 13th round pick
Antioch trades Todd Greene, Esteban Yan, Dave Mlicki

Self-preservation more than anything else, as the Pilots traded too many draft picks the year before and need to trade another to catch up.

Yan and Greene have hung around Bellingham for a long time, to everyone's bewilderment. Mlicki turned in some good starts for the Pilots, but won only 4 games, and wasn't signed. Not worth a first round pick, especially when you consider Antioch was able to talk Savannah out of Mariano Rivera for it.

Second Round of Draft Concludes,
Draft Concludes

Previous trades concluded:

Raleigh trades 1999 13th round pick, Brian Hunter
Antioch trades Carl Everett

Whereas Everett is pretty decent, he was only worth a 67th pick last year, in what was his best season. Assuming he's signed, he'll still have to produce. A 5-8 start may have produced a little panic in Antioch. Hunter won't be kept, of course, but Antioch has the pick, as well as Bellingham's, which could prove useful for a run if their 11-5 start is no fluke.

Everett was no fluke, and is worth more than a 13th. The pick eventually was Derek Lowe, which ain't bad, but Antioch never found another CF over the next few years, auditioning Rickey Henderson, Melvin Benard, Danny Bautista, and Orlando Palmiero.

Raleigh trades 1999 20th & 21st pick, Joe Randa
Vienna trades John Valentin

If Raleigh was serious making a run for the division, they couldn't have seriously considered a full year of Randa at third. The bench in Raleigh is still a big problem.

A non-event. Done for the draft picks as much as anything.

Savannah trades 1999 13th pick, Ryan Klesko
Martinez trades Bryce Florie, Mickey Morandini, Dennis Reyes

Aside from filling a couple of needs in middle relief and second base (given a long injury to Counsell), it also provides a good pitching prospect. Klesko playing first base is not an exciting prospect, the first round pick is worth more.

The pick turned out to be Ben Davis, who took up roster space before he was finally left unsigned. Klesko hasn't hit that well in IIBL as a 1B (.860 O+S over the next 1 1/2 years), whereas Bagwell wasn't about to be mived in Savannah. Odd as it may seem, 2b Morandini was the big catch, playing an integral part in the Generals lineup, with an O+S nearly .800 and scoring 78 runs in 126 games. Florie and Reyes were both awful. Advantage Martinez.

Savannah trades Eric Davis
Dresden trades Matt Stairs

Davis is the better hitter, but he's 5 years older, and doesn't play a passable LF to replace the departing Ryan Klesko.

Davis: .320/31/113. Stairs: .313/19/96. Stairs was signed but wasn't terribly effective after 1998.

Las Vegas trades Delino DeShields
Hana trades Rey Ordonez, 13th round pick

DeShields is a good player and fills a big hole for the Storm. The pick will probably be towards the end of the first round, and Ordonez probably won't be kept, but Deshields injury made him a questionable signing anyway.

DeShields hit passably for the Storm in 2/3 season (.791 O+S) and then contributed a couple of big hits in the playoffs. He stuck around, but was pretty average thereafter. Las Vegas didn't make too much use of the pick, getting about half a Todd Walker.

Carolina trades Jeff Abbott, Jesus Sanchez
Rio Salado  trades Kerry Wood, Cecil Fielder

Wood's injury is a big blow for an expansion team, so Steve Kuffrey makes the best of a bad situation. Abbott would be more convincing if he had proved a little more so far, but Wood's halflife shortens with every series that is played. Sanchez doesn't have Wood's upside, but at least he gets to pitch in 1999. Carrying Wood through a couple of signings will be a burden.

Big steal for the Hurricanes. Wood went 14-6, 3.25 and 3-0 in the playoffs and World Series. Abbott and Sanchez were both busts. Wood even fetched a #54 pick which turned into Vladimir Nunez, who won 9 for the Hurricanes in 1999.

Montreal trades Vinny Castilla, Joey Hamilton
Bellingham trades Roger Clemens, Dean Palmer

Too many variables to figure this one out (Clemens' age, Castilla's park factors, Palmers' potential that 1998 was a fluke season, Hamilton's real value), so I'll let Steve and Ron discuss this through their press   releases.

"The Pilots announce the trade of Roger Clemens, along with 3b Dean Palmer (acquired before the season) to fellow Forbes rival Montreal. In return, the Pilots welcome 3b Vinny Castilla, along with P Joey Hamilton. Both are projected to be protected next week. Says Forbes "Roger was acquired to get us past Carolina last year. He didn't do it, and has absolutely tanked so far this year. If I'm going to have a starter pitch at the 4.50 ERA level, it might as well be someone I expect to pitch there. Not Mr. Cy Young. Vinny Castilla provides us now with a legitimate cleanup hitter and everyday player. Our offense should improve. I hope."

"Montreal GM does it again. Never one to shy away from a trade, he sends 3B Castilla and P Hamilton over to the Pilots for 3B Palmer and P Clemens. The loss of Castilla will hurt Montreal, but the aquisition of Clemens gives Montreal to two best pitchers in the league. With Pedro, Clemens and Thompson in the rotation, Montreal is well on it's way to being a pitching force in the league

Castilla returns to the Pilots after hitting 52 HRs in 183 games. Back with Bellingham, he adds a .297 average and 23 HRs and 90 RBIs in 109 games. Meanwhile, Joey Hamilton goes 12-4. Hard to begrudge the results of that.  Clemens went 9-7 for Montreal through the rest of the season before being returned to Bellingham for some draft picks, and Palmer was a disappointment despite hitting a few HRs. Advantage, Bellingham.

Antioch trades Fernando Vina
Montreal trades 13th pick, Joey Cora

Montreal's first round draft pick is going to be a little better than average, but Vina is better than Quilvio Veras, who went late in the first round in the previous year.

Vina was terrible for the Trekkers, going .254/6/31 over the remaining 101 games before getting injured in 1999. In Y2K, the Wind were able to cash in Vina for a 14th round pick, but it was still a wasted two years. 

Dresden trades Danny Graves, Calvin Pickering
South Texas trades Steve Reed

Will Clark's signing day injury raised hopes for Pickering's call up and hence his signing. Graves' poor start caused him to go unsigned. Reed has been a quality reliever for a number of years, and the Blacks signed him as their 16th.

None of these goys were signed, so Graves' future as a Crimea Tatar came at the expense of a first round pick. 

SIGNINGS CONCLUDED. Unsigned players in green

Oklahoma trades Wally Joyner, Jason Dickson, and James Baldwin
Raleigh trades 18th and 19th round picks and
Jim Pittsley

Joyner is more useful to Oklahoma than Raleigh, where he will watch Carlos Delgado play. Dickson and Baldwin provide a little depth to the pitching staff, but only very little.

A waste of picks.

Oklahoma trades Todd Walker
Las Vegas trades Hana 13th round, LVC 14th round picks

Relative to what MTL paid for Vina, this looks a little more expensive. Net, LVC spends a 14th round pick to upgrade from DeShields to Todd Walker.

As expected, relatively expensive. While Walker went .312/.362/.471 for the rest of 1998, he dropped off significantly in 1999 and wasn't signed thereafter. 

Rio Salado trades Antonio Osuna, Keith Lockhart
Carolina trades 17th round pick,
Cecil Fielder, Scott Winchester

A 17th round draft pick for a guy with 22 innings left. Osuna would help in the playoffs, but the Hurricanes are only 3 games clear of that at the 80 game mark.

Osuna wasn't anything special for his 20 innings, while Lockhart had one extra base hit for the Hurricanes.

Martinez trades Hideo Nomo
Bellingham trades
Brian Rose, 19th pick

A 19th round pick for a starter who could have helped down the stretch. In fact, Nomo wound up on the starters depth chart behind two susbequent acquisitions.

Rio Salado trades Omar Olivares
Bellingham trades 22nd round pick

A steal, but a trade an expansion team needs to do to corral picks for the future. He would have gotten even more had he been signed.

Montreal  trades Terry Mulholland
Bellingham trades
Matt Luke, 21st round pick

Third new pitcher just before the trading deadline, but it's a little too late for the Pilots, having started their chase just a little too far back. 

Dresden  trades 18th round pick
Oklahoma trade
Bob Henley, 20th round pick

Really only one plus rounds between the picks for a decent utility catcher/pinch hitter. 

Antioch sends Montreal 13th round pick
Cape Hatteras trades Pete Harnisch

Antioch had acquired the pick for Fernando Vina, so given subsequent events this is a big plus for the Wizards. It also put people in the stands, since  Harnisch pitched well in the team's playoff push.

Harnisch only went 4-5 the rest of theway, including losing a crucial game down the stretch. His payoff came in 1999 when he won 18 and lost 5. But he lost 2 games to Dresden and wasn't signed thereafter. Not a bad investment for the Wizards. 

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