Perth Heat -> Detroit Wheels (DTW) under new owner Peter Brooks
Benito was a surprise signing decision after a number of mixed years. He was expected to have provided at bats and power. Although the Cubs gave him his at bats, he performed only well enough to be traded for a backup catcher. Carolina needed the AB, but Santiago only posted an O+S of less than .600.
Savannah needed draft picks to be sure, but this was a brave move, sending away a pitcher who went 40-12 over the last two years. Given the pitchers last year closest to 28 and 75 were Brian Bohanon and Seth Greisinger, Savannah has to think they'll do better. PS. Roger Cedeno and James Baldwin were the results from the draft picks, which may have made some Generals fan long to have Brown back. Baldwin and Wright went a respectable combined 19-17, so this wasn't too bad, but the major karma was that Cedeno helped bring in Randy Johnson.
Simple to analyze. Rivera is better than any pure closer available, although Williamson or Zimmerman, if available, might have been better picks. Stairs at #48 is less of a bargain, since one would expect one of Roger Cedeno, BJ Surhoff, O Henry, or Ray Lankford to be available at that pick. PS. Ron Belliard and Eddie Taubensee were the picks taken by the Generals. While Belliard is quite useful, Taubensee is a fill in. The draft was also a banner year for relievers getting picked early, and Rivera could have possibly fetched even more.
Oklahoma Thunder -> Minnesota Blizzrds under new manager Chris Kaufman
Seems a bit cheap. Betcha 24 y o Warren Morris, a middle infielder with more or less the same stats, goes somewhat higher. Hard to fault a 23 year old shortstop with double figure HR power just because he only hit 3 when he was 22. The premium for draft picks continues. Anyway, it not like either team is short picks; the two teams have a combined 17 of the first 100. PS. The 26th was traded onwards and got about 2/5 of Larry Walker while the 98th got Henry Rodriguez for the Penguins. Vienna gets pretty decent value for a young shortstop.
Vienna drafted Beltre #3 last year and cashes out at #1. His value hasn't diminished at all since (he's not even old enough to drink), so the real question is whether there's anyone better in the current draft. Durham is probably worth somewhere between 18th and 30th, and doesn't look wildly out of place for the #25. PS. Ankiel was taken #1 for all of his possible risks and rewards, and the 25th got another young pitcher in Octavio Dotel. Ankiel helped fetch Pedro Martinez, so all was well in Vienna at the end of the day.
Montreal Trekkers -> Chicago Wind under new manager Shawn Dylla
The Pilots try to assemble a team even older than last year's. Truthfully, Forbes couldn't have done a lot better in the draft (younger is a different issue), and this leaves only one pick in the 100. For new manager Shawn Dylla, this is a directional move. Younger talent will be needed to supplant the Bichettes, Devon Whites, and Walt Weisses, and these picks will be useful. PS. Chicago drafts Jeff Weaver and Paul O'Neill with the picks. Not much to choose from either side.
Maybe it was done to clear the path for Vladimir Guerrero in RF, or maybe it was done because of the needs for draft picks, or maybe it was done because Larry hasn't played a full season since the Carter administration. But Walker still has had awesome stats over the last few years, park effects notwithstanding. This year Colorado is a bit more unbalanced than usual, so this might be a pick for the future for Vienna. PS. Savannah drafted Sydney Ponson and Doug Glanville with the picks. However much potential Ponson had, he helped bring in Randy Johnson; Glanville was fairly useful and durable. Walker wound up in Dresden, helping to bring in Nomar Garciaparra for the Penguins.
Saunders is awful and unprotectable, but only about 10 players get drafted after the Blacks' pick anyway. Saunders is relatively acceptable against the odd lefty, a poor man's version of Chris Peters. Now that's a scary thought.
Nagy has been pretty lousy the last few years, but becomes the youngest member of Hatteras' aging pitching staff. But a durable #4 pitcher is a useful commodity and saves Patrick a draft pick. Kotsay has been a disappointment to say the least, and he can try somewhere else now.
Raleigh gets the pick back sacrificed for John Valentin in last year's abortive pennant chase. This year Kendall is sacrificed to get it back. Of course, Kendall is a risk coming back off a nasty injury, and Raleigh also picks up a needed starter in a year there are virtually none, but it wasn't long ago when Kendall was considered one of the top 1o properties in IIBL. PS. Raleigh picked up Masato Yoshii with the pick, solidifying their pitching staff for a pennant run which never happened, which made it a pretty bad experience for the Fingers.
A rather large trade, with 7 players and 4 picks. If we break this down into its various components we get swaps of closers and third basemen, and a midlevel pick for Dante Bichette. Bichette for a #59 is just about right. Downsizing Percival to Wickman and Palmer to Brosius are both significant, despite Wickman's additional innings and Brosius' better defense. That leaves Pedro Martinez being traded for Magglio Ordonez and the 6th pick in the draft. The sixth pick could be very good at the end of the day, so that part of it looks like pretty good value for Pedro. Whether it's enough for the Wind to make up for the downsizing...??? I'll venture to say I like the Drivers side a little more.
The Wind comment: The deal originated with Pedro, Dante and a pick for #6, #59 and Magglio, but grew larger as both teams discussed other options. The Wind are very pleased with these acquisitions, and hope that the 1st round pick will give them the youth that the team desperately needs. It's difficult to see Pedro leave, but we hope that a young quality starting pitcher can be drafted with one or more of our picks. With Bichette gone, Johnny Damon can move over to leftfield, and Magglio can take over in right. This, will improve dramatically the defense of the outfield. Brosius provides solid defense to the left side of the infield, and Wickman (although beaten by righties) will help bridge the gap until a solid closer can be found. I don't think Percival was our future.
PS. Chicago got Jeff Suppan, Latroy Hawkins, and Randy Wolf with the picks. None of them are likely to be confused with Pedro, but there are numbers on the Windy side.
Carolina Hurricanes send Kerry WoodHas to be considered a big success for the Hurricanes, getting Nunez for Wood, after having given up only Jeff Abbott and Jesus Sanchez a year before, and winning a championship.
Dresden Blacks send picks #138 and #230Gilkey once led IIBL in RBIs. His value has diminished since, but he's a useful platoon player still. Tidewater must have their eye on someone.
Trading Garciaparra is hard to do, of course, but the Blacks fill a lot of holes, pick up three clutch hitters, 67 home runs, improve the bullpen, and replace Nomar with Batista, who is still in the top quartile of shortstops. Batista may wind up playing 3b at the end of the day, in which case the Penguins dodge a bullet and the Blacks need to look for another shortstop. Vienna pares down to a core of a dozen young protectable players, which range from the unassailable (Nomar, Casey, Lankford) to unsure (Kendall, Trot, Chavez) to unproven (Ankiel, Dotel, Kip Wells).
At the end of the day, both teams got what they wanted. The Blacks got the 1999 championship they wouldn't have gotten without the contributions of all 4 players, and Vienna got Nomar for their 2000 pennant. For 2001, the Blacks still have Walker and Batista, and the Penguins have an injured Nomar. One of these days, it may emerge that Nomar still has values whereas the Blacks package is spent, but teams can't go about making trades on the Year 6 effect.
Draft deals done not reportedQuantity for quality.
South Texas Solicitors send Jose Canseco, Edgar Martinez, John Burkett, and Scott Erickson and 34th and 35th round picksThe
cashing out of Edgar, Jose, and Scotty seems cheap given the lack of a surefire
prospect or a first round draft choice. On the other hand the ages in the trade
are 23/23/24/25 vs 31/35/35/36. That's 42 years difference in all. How many of
those 42 years will be useful years is the key for the Lawyers. Whether Edgar
(stuck behind Olerud) and the pitchers really help is a matter for Tidewater to
further sort out.
This turned into a very bad trade for the Solicitors, as only Brian Meadows of
the 4 players was signed 2 years hence> And that was no bargain either.
Positional. With Phil
Nevin and Mike Sweeney heading off in directions out from behind the plate,
Antioch figures they should have someone there. For Madiba, while they still
have Chris Widger to sign going forward, the logic is less clear, since having
two catchers is probably more useful than having 4 outfielders (Stewart, Floyd,
Kapler, and Hidalgo). 5 if you count Ward.
Hidalgo turned out to
have a spectacular year, while Hernandez didn't and Long wasn't worth signing.
Good trade for Madiba.
Seems to me the only one
worth keeping is Ausmus. Perisho and DePaula may have potential, but are awfully
risky signings. Wickman is an impostor. Navarro isn't even that.
Much ado about nothing.
A play on Brett Tomko and
his new surroundings in Seattle. Mulholland is the key player in the Tidewater
pennant race, since the team had previously been bereft of lefties.
Much ado about nothing.
And so the Randy Johnson era ends in Bellingham. Faced with an old roster and an 18-24 start, Steve Forbes pulls the plug on the franchise's two most successful pitchers. Although Johnson was of to a lousy 2-5, 6.07 start, since joining the Pilots in the middle of 1994 Johnson went 64-31 for the Pilots, including his thrilling 1995 campaign (20-5, 1.93). That year he almost singlehandedly led the Pilots past the Yukon Crush for a division win. (Ironically, Yukon's manager, Mike Younkman, will now have to fend off Johnson as manager of the Generals rival, Tidewater.) While Johnson's departure is the end of an era, Hoffman will be missed just as badly. Since being claimed as a free agent in the 1994 season, Hoffman saved 134 games in five years, never posting an ERA over 3. His 134 saves ranks #1 all time in IIBL history.
Coming back to the Pilots is an odd assortment of players. The key is Ponson, the Generals' first round pick, 22 years old and a rotation innings eater. Cedeno has good OB% and will fill a leadoff hitting need, while Trombley and Boehringer are middle innings specialists but who are still low percentage signees.
For Savannah, although they pick up the two stars, Darrell Kile and James Baldwin are still the #2-3 pitchers, and Dave Veres, Graeme Lloyd, and Sean Lowe are the team's remaining middle relief. All is not too well despite what looks like the Generals adding a couple legends cheaply.
Steve Forbes, Pilot GM retorts: It was obvious that the Unit was done in Safeco. 16 homers in 56 innings - I thought we had Woody Williams reincarnated. Hated to see Trevor go, but he needs to play for a winner. Meanwhile, we feel that we can use all of these players to stay competitive this year, as well as getting younger. Cedeno fills our 2 year old vacuum as a leadoff hitter. Ponson is 22 - Tony Gwynn has some socks that old. Boehringer and Trombley provide some future for the Pilots. We will continue to deal as we can, but there will be no mortgaging the future this year."
Once again, another example of why teams shouldn't be trading away sure things. Ponson and Cedeno were the only things of much value, and they were hardly Units or even Hoffmans. Big, big win for the Generals, and a good reason why they won the division a year later, while Bellingham subsequently became a sub-.500 team.
Storm, despite
being in first place, begin to bail out, and cash in the present value of the
injured John Smoltz. Getting a first round pick is good value, considering he is
out for Y2K. The signing of any of the three players the Storm receives is
dubious at best.
Hana retorts: And Myette penciled in as a fifth starter hears he was traded to
Hana and stuffs a fist into a clubhouse wall and breaks his hand? (I guess
that's why he did it?) Also when will the Dodgers with the second highest
payroll in baseball give up on Overpayed Cripple Huntley behind the plate and
admit Angel Pena is the catcher of the future? I guess the moral to this whole
thing is you can't expect all these youngsters to be the next Doug Mientkiewicz.
The season from hell continues!!
Yes, the 13th was worth something, and Smoltz took a couple of draft picks away
when he needed to be signed. But he's still a blue chip player, and none of the
others are.
In the arms race which is the Western Division, the Lumber pick up a usable catcher and two middling relievers for two good pitching prospects. Still, pitching prospects are pitching prospects, and Hatteras will probably be relieved they won't have to sacrifice two good draft picks for signing them, not knowing what might turn out.
Storm pick up two pitching prospects for two fairly unimportant players. Dunston's .321 average belies a shallow .337 OB% and .453 SA. True, he plays a lot of positions, but none of them terribly well. Wilkins can be fairly useful against LHB. Cooper has some use for this year, while Laxton is a longshot signing prospect.
Bellingham Pilots send
Roger Clemens, Orel Hershiser, Doug Jones, and Tony Gwynn
Tides send Pat Hentgen, John Burkett, Moises Alou, and John Wetteland
Tides still escalating,
picking up Tony Gwynn and Roger Clemens for the pennant push. Most valuable
futures given up are Alou and Wetteland. A decent gamble by Tidewater, who
have Roger going forward. Bellingham, having traded Roger and Unit will have a
harder time replacing their pitching, although Wetteland will pick up for Trevor
Hoffman.
After blowing the Randy Johnson trade, the Pilots do much better this time. Alou
had to have been signed for a year while injured, but Hentgen, Wetteland, and
Burkett all chipped in more admirably than what was left of the careers of
Hershiser and Gwynn.
Market value of
Damon and Stewart are about equal, being 25 year old outfielders with some
upside. Thus, the rump. Estalella is a wild card, but a probable signee, given
he's a 24 year old catcher with power and playing time. Nothing wrong with
Sullivan either, who has thrown 210 decent innings over the past two years.
Aside from the fact that Wolf and Looper are young pitchers, hit/innings ratios
have been nothing to get excited about. Advantage, Chicago, unless one of the
pitchers turns out.
Still assuming the market value of Stewart and Damon are equal, having a starter
like Wolf is usually better than having an aging reliver like Sullivan.
First this deal, and then some of what was turned down. The 13th round pick is likely to be very good, as the Drivers are 12-40 in games not started by His Pedroness. A first overall pick is not out of the question here, but that's what Ankiel was, so we'll call that part a wash. So it's Casey and Dotel for Pedro. While Casey has great upside potential, it's not all that hard to find great first basemen in a non-DH league. That the Drivers signed Brogna far too long might have colored their thinking on this though. Dotel has good upside, but he is no Pedro. Brogna and Eusebio are basically nothings, although Tony will probably stop the Penguins rent-a-backup-catcher.
Other offers included Blacks offering Jose Rosado, Travis Dawkins, Paul Shuey, and Gil Meche (or Darren Dreifort) for Pedro, Percival, Cook, and Mike Jackson. Most observers called that a better offer, although Dotel and Ankiel probably have better eventual upside over Rosado and Meche, and nobody really covers Casey. However, the Drivers would have kept their 13th.
Savannah weighed in with Bagwell, Glanville, Kile, and #1 for Pedro, Brogna, and Steve Finley, which might even be a better offer. But it didn't contain enough pitching, and the Savannah pick looks deep into the early 20s, which would have meant Kile and another mediocre starter to build a staff around.
Finally, the Madiba United offer was Floyd, Hudson, Zeile, Bergeron, and Armas for Pedro, Dee Brown, Jeremy Giambi, and Hocking, which was mercifully turned down. Nobody is a sure thing out of that crowd, and the waiting time for some of the players received might have put New York in disarray for some years to come.
A simply horrible trade for New York. The 13th round pick turned into Lance Berkman.
Hana Storm send 19th and 20thWell, something had to be done about the increasingly handicapped Ken Caminiti. Hana picks up two prospects for a couple of middling draft picks. Considering they need to carry them through the draft, not a real bargain; considering there was nobody better, it is not a bad deal for the Storm.
A hot start as the Cubs
shortstop and Hana cashes in. Cook will also help a Hana team not sure which way
it is going. Advantage, Storm.
Cook performed poorly
for the Storm in the playoffs against Dresden. Gutierrez lasted a little longer
than expected, so it's overall a good trade for the Drivers.
The Kevin Brown derby
failed to attract as much hoopla as the Pedro Bowl, and the Storm go for a
series of semi-prospects. All three are signed, making 14 in all,
showing the relative lack of depth in Detroit as compared to Vienna.
Another prime
example why it isn't a very good idea to trade established stars for a gaggle
of prospects.
Hana Storm send Carlos Guillen and Round 21 pick
As bad as the prospects
of replacing Caminiti were, the need for replacing Darryl Hamilton was worse.
As far as Madiba is concerned, it's just another rookie, and they'll probably
be able to use the draft pick.
Including the above, it was 19, 20, and 21 for Bergeron and Mendoza. Mendoza
was worth it; Bergeron wasn't.
Vienna Penguins send
OF Lankford and P Nitkowski and Round 27 next year
San Juan Bums send Round 13 (first round) and P Rafael Roque and P Carlos
Perez
Would have been more
convincing had the Bums signed Nitkowski. With SJB 7 out of a playoff
spot, additions like Kevin Brown and Lankford will help, but the 13th is a
high price to pay for fleeting glory.
Lankford really wasn't worth the 13th round pick, at the end of the day, so
Vienna with an advantage.
Madiba United send
Chris Widger, Cliff Floyd, and United 2001 20th rounder
Cape Hatteras Lumber send Michael Barrett, Matt Riley, and Rob Ducey
I tend to side on the
side of CHL in this one, with a durable catcher swinging the vote. Barrett was
2-27 when traded and wasn't sure that he would wind up as a catcher. Too much
uncertainty for me. Floyd may turn out as good a player. Taken from that
perspective, MAD made a good deal.
The trade that brought Hatteras Cliff Floyd, their only good young player.
Michael Barrett was a poor return, but was eventually flogged on.
Dresden Blacks send
Venafro, Travis Dawkins, Gilkey, Seguignol, 28th rounder
Madiba United send Polonia, Allen Watson, Juan Pena, Darren Jackson
MAD signed Dawkins as their last pick, so it's not a great sacrifice. Aside from that a change of scenery trade for underperforming DRE players. Watson, Jackson, and Polonia are slight upgrades over their predecessors
A mild surprise,
since a rotation starting with Pedro and Brown would have started the
Penguins as division favorites. Thome isn't chopped liver, of course, but
there are always 1B around somewhere. The Bums pick up respectability in the
pennant race as well, and have to get a slight advantage in the deal.
Two years later, it's still thought that Brown may have been the better
hold, even with the injury problem. However, Thome begat Jason Giambi, so
it's hard to complain how this worked out.
Not quite
clear where Zeile fits in, other than to spell Travis Fryman. Prior, Ed
Sprague was hitting .178 in that role. Olerud seems set at 1b and the
bench has better pinchhitters in Edgar and Canseco. All in all, a 20th
seems steep to pay for a 2nd string 3b, with little in collateral
attributes.
Sure, Tim Hudson
had a nice half a season, but certainly a combination of discarded Dresden
retreads can't be the rest of the missing pieces to overtake Carolina for
the forbes division crown (note forbes division intentionally in
small case). Hard to see Greg Myers in everyday duty. Even
if Brian Jordan turns out to be a waste of space who's only had the odd
good year, picking up Posada and Sele should cause MadU to forget about
Hudson, whether or not he suffers from a sophomore slump. Let's not even
start on the long-term ramifications of trading three signed players for
one.
Two years later, Hudson turned out to be the real deal, but not that much
more valuable than Posada. Given Sele and Jordan went along with Posada,
Madiba turned out to be better on the deal.
Madiba
United send Gabe Kapler and 23rd pick
Vienna Penguins send Ryan
Christiansen, Aramis
Ramirez, 32nd pick
Two underperforming rookies, whereby which Ramirez, by virtue of being demoted to the minors, reinforces his position as the longer term prospect. Patience is a virtue, and Vienna might tire of Kapler quickly if he doesn't put up numbers.
Hana Storm
send Juan Gonzalez, Matt Walbeck
Tidewater Tides send Bob Wickman, Brad Ausmus
One of the true gifts in this league is knowing when to cash in on the veterans which brought all those homers and all those pennants. 5 1/2 years with Hana, 207 homers, including the .327/47/138 and .329/55/132 seasons in 1996 and 1997. But the reality of the situation is not that Juan was all that instrumental to the Hana championship in 1995, and in the subsequent playoff series he contributed fewer homers than Todd Pratt.
That he eventually got traded for a good field, ok hit catcher and a reliever says more about his future than his past. What's a moderately slow rightfielder in a big park who walks infrequently going to do in his 30's? But a catcher and a reliever?
Hana
Storm send
Gregg Olson
Carolina Hurricanes send a 22nd round pick
Not the worst pickup for a playoff team, as Olson can get a couple innings in as a right handed set up man.
Vienna
Penguins send 18th round pick
Detroit Wheels send Ed Yarnall
Unless this was part of the earlier deal Detroit would have done better to not sign Yarnall, as they would have gotten their own 15th back. As such, their return for Kevin Brown now reads as Kip Wells, an 18th, and Mitch Meluskey. Need we say more about the perils of young pitchers.
Tidewater
Tides send Tony Gwynn
Minnesota Blizzards send 22nd, Ryan
Bradley
Tides were piling up a host of similar players: Edgar, Canseco, Gwynn, Juan Gonzalez, even Zeile. Gywnn the odd man out, and might help the Blizzards sneak into the playoffs. Unkindly, Tony's not a whole lot better these days than Chad Allen, the man who will bear the brunt of the residual splinters.
Madiba
United send Brian Jordan, Livan Hernandez
Hana Storm send 13th, CHL 13th, Charles Nagy,
Terrell
Lowery
Nagy's injuries essentially sets Jordan and Hernandez as each being traded for late first round picks. Jordan had some nice seasons for Carolina in 1995 (.298/35/114) and for San Juan in 1998 (.323/29/112, 124 runs) but these may be fewer going forward. He is after all 3 years older than the man he replaces, Juan Gonzalez. On the theory that any inning pitched is a good inning pitched, Livan has as many as any. But when those innings include about 1.2 hits per, Hana may rather wish they had that pick back and be drafting from even a poor deck.
Madiba
United send Armando Benitez, Brett Tomko
Carolina Hurricanes send 13th, Andy Benes, Matt Herges
Madiba still collecting bad 13th round picks, Hurricanes still trying to put together a pitching staff which will get them deeper into the playoffs. Benitez, with only about 23 innings left in the regular season, isn't going to be that much of a factor in the regular season, but might help a situation where John Franco, Gregg Olson, and Bob Howry all lost their job to Russ Springer. Tomko is an improvement to Benes at the back end of the Carolina rotation, but not quite the stopper the defending champs envisaged.