2000 Trade Page

Commentaries in yellow were posted at the time of the trade.
Commentaries in white have been posted at least a year after the fact.

Expansion Managers: 

Brian Potrafka -> Kiev Cossacks (KIE) in Forbes Division
Robert Hicks -> Sycamore Flatlanders (SYC) in Ebbets Division

Madiba United send CHL 13th, TID 20th, and TID 22nd (#s 18, 168, 220)
Antioch Wizards send Mike Sweeney

Sweeney was available because his move from catcher collided with Todd Helton's monster season. Normally, 1B don't get this much, but Mike has some nice stats. One would think that guys like Segui, Fullmer, or even Galarraga would be available for far less, meaning that this has to be considered a potential pick. But is Mike really going to hit .340 again?
Post-mortem: Antioch got Gabe White, Danny Bautista, and Craig Counsell with the picks. As White couldn't close down RRD in game 5 of the World Series, advantage Madiba.

Madiba United send Aaron Sele and MAD 25rd
Cape Hatteras Lumber send Bruce Chen, Adam Kennedy, Bill Mueller, and CHL 17th

Signalling another change in strategy for the Lumber. Sele is quite useful and durable here, but it serves to wipe out all of the youth in Hatteras. It's unlikely the team is good enough to contend in 2000, so the point is somewhat lost here. Madiba collects a lot more pieces to see which stick and which can be turned into something more useful.
Sele has been better than expected, but it's still likely that the sum of young talent exceeds his value.

Madiba United send Braden Looper to Lumber.
Cape Hatteras Lumber send Chris Widger and CHL 24th

Neither player is that special, but the Lumber need a catcher and United don't.

Madiba United send Jose Vidro and Andy Benes
Bellingham Pilots send Glendon Rusch, Sidney Ponson, BEL 13th, 17th, and 18th (#s 9, 82, 105)

At the risk of incurring a wrathful comment from Bellingham management, United pulls a big ripoff. True, Vidro is a nice player, but Bellingham loses their two pitchers better than Benes and a top 10 pick.  We need only go back a few months when Randy Johnson and Trevor Hoffman were traded for four players, the only two which were signed were Ponson and Roger Cedeno. While Ponson's season had an ERA over 5 at the  time of the trade, his H/IP ratio wasn't that bad, and he was in the top two dozen in innings pitched.
The picks turned out to be Rob Bell (taken by RIO after the pick was traded onwards), Mike Bordick (in exchange for #82), and Dave Veres. Thus: Vidro &  Benes for  Rusch, Ponson, Bell, Bordick, and Veres. If the #8 pick would have been Mulder instead of Bell, one could see the effect of this trade, despite how good Vidro has become.

Madiba United send Adam Kennedy
New Jersey Patriots send Juan Encarnacion

A trade which helps neither team all that much. Kennedy is only a slightly improved version of Miguel Cairo, while Encarnacion is only Madiba's fourth best outfielder, after Damon, Hidalgo, and Ward. Meanwhile, NJP is without a third usable outfielder, and Madiba is without a 2b.
NJP management adds:  I certainly like Kennedy's pop and future more than Cairo's.     Encarnacion is not going to be rated at RF next year and in case the league addresses the situation again concerning but of position outfielders, I don't need two CF's.    Upon deeper review of my team, I don't have a shortstop or first baseman either.
As mentioned, Kennedy is overrated, but getting rid of Encarnacion is a plus by itself.

Madiba United send Juan Encarnacion
Vienna Penguins send Gabe Kapler

Very similar players.   Encarnacion seems to be a little better this year, because of the park effects and the fact that Kapler missed 20 more games. But the difference is mainly against LHP, which can be neutralized. Kapler, 6 months older,  has a better K/W ratio and has to be considered the more mature player.
As expected, Kapler was the better player.

Madiba United send Javier Vazquez, Gabe Kapler and CHL 17th (#90)
Rio Salado Scorpions send Fernando Tatis and Jon Lieber

United marches on, gutting Rio Salado's best pitcher and best (albeit injured) hitter. While Vazquez and Kapler improve the age profile of the Scorps, the trade indicates clearly that this will be a building year for them.
In the first year, Vazquez went 10-15, 6.28 vs Leiber's 18-9, 5.26.  That performance gap is likely to narrow in the future, making it a good trade for the Scorps. And, by the way the Scorps weren't rebuilding.

United send Glendon Rusch  and 28th round pick
Vienna Penguins send Jose Cruz Jr and Bums' 13th (#17)

Pitching is relatively deeper this year in the draft, so one wonders whether the Penguins couldn't have gotten someone just as good with the #17. But Rusch at 25 y.o. is younger than the Neagle/Albie Lopez/Paul Abbott types, and this gives them a chance to build a staff behind Pedro. Whether this is worth the underachieving Jose Cruz is anyone's guess. Don't expect Cruz to last long in Madiba, either.
The pick wound up in Chicago, where they got Mike Mulder. Bad trade for the Penguins, although Rusch helped bring in Giambi.

Hana Storm -> Hollywood Hopefuls (HOL) under new owner Neil Levitt
Tidewater Tides - > Crimean Tatars (CRI) under new owner Richard Applegate
Terry Buchanan takes over Cape Hatteras Lumber
Harley Brian Kernal takes over Raleigh Fingers

Wheels send Christian Guzman
Patriots send Steve Kline, Jerry Hairston, 20th round pick (#155)

If you like young shortstops, Guzman is as young as they come. Whether he can actually hit is another question, the amusement value of hitting triples notwithstanding. However, the track record of shortstops in New Jersey is not good: Kevin Stocker to Mike Caruso to Rey Ordonez. This can hardly be any worse, can it?
Pick #155 turned out to be Milton Bradley. Had Detroit kept Kline, it would have been a better trade for them. We were wrong about Guzman, it turns out he can hit a little. Advantage, Patriots.

Carolina Hurricanes send Jeff Kent
Madiba United send BEL 13th (#8), Daryle Ward, Aramis Ramirez, and Michael Barrett

Kent is a major consolidation effort for United and makes them the favorite for the division. Carolina gets a lot in return, but none of the four things are sure things. If three work out, then the trade will swing towards the Hurricanes.
The pick turned out to be Rob Bell. Although all 4 were kept, only Ramirez has Kent-like value.

Carolina Hurricanes send Dave Burba
Vienna Penguins send Eric Gagne and Juan Encarnacion

Good investment for the Hurricanes who are rapidly dumping their chances this year. Burba's not all that hot, but he does provide Vienna with a lot of innings, with nothing being a sure thing on the outgoing.
Gagne went 2-11 with a 7+ ERA in Cucamonga, while Burba went 12-10, 4.14 in Vienna. Encarnacion is a waste. Gagne helped bring in a 13th round pick a little later, which is more than Burba was ever going to do.

Madiba United send Storm #13 (20th), Travis Lee, and Gookie Dawkins
Carolina Hurricanes send Al Leiter and 16th (#74)

Rumor has it that Leiter was headed to Vienna for a series of picks, but the trigger was never pulled on that. If Leiter is worth no more than the 13th, are Lee and Dawkins worth the 16th in return? Both sides lean towards Madiba.
Post-script: Final deal, following subsequent deals is Leiter, Rick White, and Vladimir Nunez for Jose Ortiz and Luis Rivas. Big disaster Carolina.

Hollywood Hopefuls send Livan Hernandez
Kiev Cossacks send 13th round pick (#3 overall)

240 innings is nice and saves a lot of problems with a relief staff for an expansion team which, by definition, is going to have a lot of offensive holes, but Livan can hardly be worth the 3rd pick? Assuming Furcal will go #1, wouldn't you rather have D'Amico, Berkman, or Burrell?

Kiev retorts: Well-I went back & forth contemplating whether L.Hernandez was worth the high pick.
Finally, obviously I decided he was worth it. There's a lot to be said for 240 quality starter innings (22 home runs allowed). It's almost like getting 2 players. The fact that he's 25 years old is also very appealing to this expansion franchise. There were a couple starters with better stats and less IP (100-170). I couldnt assume Damico would be there at #3, and then again I wasn't sure I wanted to take a chance on a guy who's been out of baseball for 2 years and then goes on the DL twice last year.
I might regret it later, but Im happy with it now, and especially happy that going into the draft all my SP innings are already accounted for. Burrell? bah-I've got a 1stbaseman named Edgar. I spent 2 days going over this, but if I'd just given a cursory glance at it, I too might say he "can hardly be worth the third pick". :p
Livan went 14-11, 5.30 and has since slid. Burrell was the pick and was recently traded for Burnitz and Shane Reynolds. Not as bad as originally thought, but Hollywood should be pleased.

Madiba United sends Jose Cruz and 13th round pick (#17)
Chicago Wind sends Shannon Stewart and 17th round pick (#80)

About right, for both sides. Depends more on what can be picked up at 17. If it's a good starting pitcher, Chicago will have done well. Madiba seems in line to pick up a useful reliever at #80.
Post script: Mulder was #17 and Paul Wilson was #80.  Good trade for the Wind.

Madiba United sends Johnny Damon and 13th round pick (#25)
South Texas Solicitors send Brian Giles

A similar deal to the last one, and one that make more sense for STX than the previous one did for the Wind. Even if the draft pick doesn't work out, the Solicitors  still pick up three years age differential, which might be useful for trade if nothing else.
Draft pick was Brad Fullmer. However, given Fullmer and Damon had bad years subsequently, it's a big disaster for the Solicitors.

Carolina Hurricanes send pick #52
Minnesota Thunder sends Jose Valentin

The pick turned out to be Todd Hollandsworth. Valentin has an EQA of .273 vs .253 and plays a tougher position, albeit not all that well. Advantage, Carolina.

Madiba United sends #82
Carolina Hurricanes send Mike Bordick

Good pickup for Madiba. The pick is Seth Etherton. That's the equivalent of three running plays and a punt.

Andy Spindler -> Sydney Dodgers changing name to Cucamonga Orphans

DRAFT COMPLETED

Cucamonga Orphans send  Chipper Jones, Robert Person, Mark Gardner, Gerald Williams, Jay Buhner, Kevin Stocker, Geoff Blum, and Brent Mayne.
Kiev Cossacks send Sidney Ponson, Ramon Ortiz, Aubrey Huff, Terence Long, Rich Aurillia, Brook Fordyce, Ken Caminiti, Ed Sprague, and Andy Tracy.

For those who can't be bothered to count, that's a 17 player trade. Breaking it down by position we have Chipper for Huff/Caminiti, Person/Gardner for Ponson/Ortiz, Williams for Long, Stocker/Blum for Aurilia, Mayne for Fordyce, and Buhner for Sprague/Tracy. Most of this looks like clawbacks for the loss of Chipper.

Among the pitchers, the current value is about even, but the Orphans pick up a huge age differential. The swap in CF should also be a big boost for CUC, as should the SS swaps.

The net result is that this deal helps both teams in sorting out their rosters, as well as planning for the future. Before the trade, CUC really only had 8 or 9 players worth signing, now they have a dozen or so. In the short-term, the lineup is sorted out with an OF of Higginson, Long, and Mondesi, with the IF settled if in need of improvement.

KIE approaches it from a different perspective, concentrating their team in fewer players. The core is now Edgar, Klesko, Chipper, and Buhner, impressive for an expansion team. The long term problem is that each of them might wind up anywhere. In the short term, the team is better sorted, but Stocker, Todd Walker, Gerald Williams, and Brent Mayne will get far too many AB for a series wild card run.
In the end, it was Armas for Ponson, which on balance favors the Orphans.

Lakewood Pointed Sticks send  Barry Larkin, Mark Redmond, 2001 18th round
Kiev Cossacks send 2001 13th round, 2001 16th round, and Scott Servais

The catchers are interchangable and thus red herrings, so the crux of the matter is whether Larkin is worth a 13th round pick. Kiev, as an expansion team, seems somewhat set now on challenging for a playoff spot. An infield of Edgar, Todd Walker, Larkin, and Chipper is the center of a good lineup, but the pitching makes them somewhat short of Madiba. Without the 1st round pick, improving the pitching staff seems impossible. Still, they could wander into a wild card.

The pick is in the #16-20 range overall. Julio Lugo went #16 this year; one can imagine that the aged Larkin still might have more good years left than Lugo. But nobody is going to give a top ten pick for a 37 year old next year, and this is probably the best Lakewood was going to do. The problem, in my humble opinion, is that Damian Jackson probably isn't the answer short term either, and coupled with Michael Lamb, the left side of the infield looks rather weak.  Lakewood has a bunch of signable pitchers, and it looks like they are banking on turning a successful signing into a better infield. Getting Julio Lugo back with that #16 isn't a long term solution either.
It was a nice run by the Cossacks, who failed to get their playoff spot. Larkin got old and/or injured, and as such Kiev would probably like to have their pick back.

Kiev Cossacks send 2001 15th
Lakewood Pointed Sticks send Kevin Walker, 2001 19th

Moving up to a 15th round pick for a situational lefty drafted 109th overall can't be all that bad. Walker probably wasn't even the best option at the time, pitchers with better relief stats went later. The fact that Walker wound up being signed shouldn't be as much as a justification for the trade as much as an indictment of the ongoing lack of 23 year olds in Kiev; the other signing options were Omar Olivares or Gerald Williams.

Madiba United send Randy Wolf
Dresden Blacks send Darren Dreifort and Allen Levrault

A basic lefty for righty swap. Blacks pick up 14 extra innings on the swap of starters (made up by 481st pick Levrault) and four plus years in age. Stats virtually identical, given the park effects.
Dreifort had a good year for United, with 6.9 RPG support. Wolf essentially had the same stats, but for Springfield, which is where he wound up when Dresden turned him into a part of Manny Ramirez. Advantage, Dresden, due to Dreifort's subsequent injury.

Madiba United send Chris Widger, Tony Armas Jr, and Allen Levrault to Cucamonga.
Cucamonga Orphans send Sidney Ponson and Jason LaRue to Madiba.

Given Armas is  a better pitcher than Ponson (but with far less innings) this seems odd for a team destined for the playoffs. Whereas 6 playoff games could go anyway to Leiber, Leiter, and Dreifort, game 4 could have easily gone to Armas. One suspects that this can free up Brad Penny for something Madiba management finds lacking later. CUC really didn't have much choice: the Fordyce/LaRue catching situation was woefully short of PA. Not that there's that much of a drop off. If young Jason plays and hits, he projects into another Chris Widger.
In the end, it was Armas for Ponson, which on balance favors the Orphans.

Cucamonga Orphans send Bobby Higginson, Chris Singleton, and Omar Oliveras
Kiev Cossacks send Ryan Klesko, Wil Cordero, and Jaret Wright.

As if the 17 player deal wasn't enough, another 6 change hands. Given the relative defensive skills, Kiev seems to have gotten the better player between Higginson and Klesko, but Klesko hit marginally better after SD park effects. But Klesko is also a year younger, showed unusual speed, and has been relatively more consistent. Singleton is an excellent fielder but a dreadful hitter while Cordero is just about the opposite. The surprising aspect is that there's only one year age difference. We suspect that the point to this from CUC's view was to acquire Jaret Wright, but beware of young often injured pitchers.

Cucamonga Orphans send 13th round pick, Tim Bogar, Allen Levrault
Carolina Hurricanes send Mike Darr, Eric Gagne, 20th round pick

Maybe I've lost the plot here, but how much value is there to a pitcher who posted a 5+ ERA in Dodger Stadium as well as a corner outfielder who hit 1, that's o-n-e, home run last year. And it's not like CUC's draft pick is going to be in the 20's either. This will only work out for the Orphans if Gagne has a top ten pick year, since Darr's only marginally signable.
As expected, the 13th round pick for these two players turned out to be steep.

Trade of a lot of injured players. Sirotka helps the current Kiev cause somewhat but at a cost. 2001 isn't going to be much fun in Kiev. However, Alex Fernandez isn't often healthy either and might not be much of a better bet. The only sure thing is the draft pick.
Sirotka went 16-10. Getting 16 wins from a 21st round pick turns into a great deal for Kiev.

Seems pretty cheap for a 13th rounder, especially considering that Valentin was only worth this year's 52nd. While it's true that Bellingham didn't really have a #52, one wonders whether they could have generated one.
As Valentin was signed and turned in another good season in 2001, he's now approaching the 13th round pick swapped for him. But RIO now has the 10th pick overall, and that's likely to be better still.

New Jersey Patriots send 13th, 14th, 17th, Hermanson and Erdos
Sycamore Flatlanders  send Mariano Rivera and Placido Polanco

Sycamore has no real hope this year, so the question is whether Rivera is worth dumping for a pick which might now be in the lower half. If we consider Polanco for a 14th to be fair (after accounting for the .300 batting average in half a season) there still is the matter of Hermanson to contend with.
Sycamore wasn't really trying in 2000 and as such they won 30 games. Rivera and Polanco are still worth about a 13th and 14th, so New Jersey did themselves a good deal.

Hollywood Hopefuls  send Mo Vaughn
Bellingham trades Mark Grace

Mo's the last link to the 1995 championship team (nope, Juan Gonzalez, Maddux, Smoltz, or Glavine weren't there), but the injury spooked Hollywood. Whether 'tis better to suffer the ignoble fortunes of strikeouts and runners on base only to enjoy the occasional home run, or whether to enjoy the many walks and few strikeouts of a player well past his prime... Well, the only thing this trade proves is that I'm not Shakespeare. Neither should be kept, and it's really a matter of taste here. Personally, I'd rather have Grace, but it's understandable that Bellingham needs power.
Neither player was signed (although arguably Grace should have been). Grace went .268/12/75 and Vaughn went .282/42/106. I guess I was wrong about who I'd rather have.

Hollywood Hopefuls  send Peter Bergeron, 14th round pick
New York Drivers send Steve Finley

Finley is a good pickup for the Hopefuls, who have now built a solid lineup to go with their top notch pitching staff. Bergeron is a project, to be sure, and the trade really hinges on whether he develops. If he does, that and the 14th will be worthwhile, if not, Finley will have been a steal.
The pick turned out to be #33 overall, which is a lot better than Finley will ever be. His 2000 stats were .244/33/102, which isn't bad, but wasn't quite playoff material either.

Kiev Cossacks  send Blake Stein
Carolina Hurricanes send Bob Howry

Although it's great to see expansion teams swinging for the fences in their inaugural season, there are inevitably some things which get fixed a little later. The bullpen, after blowing three early season saves, was exposed early. The acquisition of Bobby Howry helps somewhat, but 26 year old pitchers with good H/IP ratios don't grow on trees. 
 Stein was signed, but hasn't shown that he deserves the contract yet.

Detroit Wheels  send Aaron Myette
Pocono Pines Buffalo Wings send Bobby Jones (the lousy lefthanded one)

Pointless. Neither is even likely to be signed.
Myette was signed, which means that the advantage is to Detroit.

Lakewood Pointed Sticks send Eric Young
Kiev Cossacks send Todd Walker

Yet another push for the first season playoff berth. Young is 33, fairly old for a 2b; while Walker is 27, entering his prime. Aside from the stolen bases, not a lot to choose from their stats, although Young has double the at bats. Geoff Blum can now go back at being the backup for Larkin.
Walker is now marginally better, so it's a fair trade achieving aims on both sides.

Dresden Blacks send Randy Wolf, Adam Piatt, Jimmy Rollins, Jarrod Washburn, Roy Halladay
Springfield Homers send Manny Ramirez, Kenny Rogers, Kevin Elster, Gregg Jefferies, Stirling Hitchcock

Blacks give up quite a bit, but players like Manny are hard to find. Manny should give the Blacks about 6 excellent years. While Springfield might get many more, the price is that some may be a few years away.

For the Blacks, it does two things. First, it makes them a very dangerous playoff team, with McGwire, Ramirez, Biggio, and Walker all pounding full time in all but a seven game series. However, a lot of runs will be needed with a staff of Radke, Millwood, and Rogers. The second thing is that it consolidates the signings into 12 or 13, rather the no-mans land of 15-16 which were the unknowns such as Washburn, Halladay, and Todd Jones.

For Springfield, this gives them the ability to reroute what was a declining franchise. The 2000 draft was a horrible one, with only Sanchez (#15) and Enrique Wilson (#160) looking at all signable. That, plus a 3-8 start meant that new blood, and a lot of it, needed to be found fast. The Homers now can at least choose their 12th and possibly their 13th players from the Dan Reicharts and David Ortiz's, rather than having to figure out the lesser of evils like signing Melvin Mora, Wiki Gonzalez, or Rich Becker to round out the 12.

Despite my tirades on the evils of dumping, this worked out nicely for the Homers. Rollins, Wolf, and Washburn all have good value, while Piatt is still a prospect. Had the Homers taken a chance on Halladay, this would have worked out even better. One year later, if you asked most owners if you would trade the 5 for Manny, most would say yes. For the Blacks, although they didn't make the playoffs, having Manny wor a few more years is a nice consolation prize.

Detroit Wheels send Damon Buford
Kiev Cossacks send Gerald Williams

Williams was only in a platoon role anyway, and Buford is a better platoon player. Williams seems a little more signable, so this is not a bad deal for the Wheels.
In retrospect, a good situational trade for both teams, as both were well suited to their subsequent roles.

Antioch Wizards send Armando Rios
Savannah Generals send Justin Speier

Antioch Wizards send Chris Carpenter
Lakewood Pointed Sticks send Rich Garces

Rios was relatively expendable anyway, with Bubba Trammell as the fourth outfielder. Carpenter represents a young pitcher with potential, and a better signing for Lakewood than Antioch. The more interesting issue is the Wizards chase of Vienna and Dresden. While last year's killer bullpen was largely responsible for last year's 116 win season, the strategy is less effective against better teams. Even last year's collection of Mariano Rivera, Derek Lowe, and Scott Williamson couldn't prevent the Blacks from averaging 6 runs a game in the first five innings of their playoff series. And the trend continues. In the first series after these pickups, the Blacks still managed 15 runs in 16 innings off the starting rotation. While the Wizards have enough offense to come back and close these leads, perfection is a lot to ask of Speier and Garces and everyone else to give Antioch a chance.

Two trades of signed players for relievers. But, in the end, despite Antioch's refusal to sign either, nothing of importance was lost.

Detroit Wheels send Joe Crede, 20th and 21st round draft picks (to be adjusted to 16th)
Lakewood Pointed Sticks send Kiev 13th

Crede went in the 17th last year, so this is fairly aggressive unless he develops more quickly. Last seen, Joe Crede was plugging away in the White Sox system, behind Herbert Perry and the inevitable Jose Valentin experiment at 3b. 

Madiba United send Mike Sweeney, Brad Penny, Luis Rivas
Lakewood Pointed Sticks send Carlos Delgado, Andy Ashby, Jose Jiminez

Madiba wins big on this one, since even the non-Delgado portion represent a pickup for United. Sure, Penny and Rivas are still getting carded in Florida and Minnesota, but Penny has already been spent a half a year on the DL while Rivas might go half a year between drawing walks. Meanwhile, Ashby is a dependable 180-200 innings in Dodger Stadium, while Jiminez is a top shelf reliever. After getting Crede and Carpenter in recent trades, it looks as if the youth movement has no limit in Lakewood.

And that's a paragraph without discussing Delgado. Teams shouldn't trade away franchise players, with the possible exceptions of clear immediate paybacks or amassing a gaggle of prospects. Neither are true here. All Lakewood is amassing is a gaggle of second basemen (Todd Walker and Damian Jackson are both ahead of Rivas on the depth chart.) About the only plus side of this is that Sweeney is two years younger. That part of the youth movement should be tempered against his 4-36 MLB start.

Interestingly, Lakewood turned down a better deal in Delgado and Ashby, for Jim Thome, Glendon Rusch and a 13th. (Albert Belle for Eric Davis was also included, but for all purposes that's a wash.) With Sweeney marginally better than Thome and Rusch marginally better than Penny, the difference in the two trades is Jiminez and a first round pick for Luis Rivas!

Overall, it turned out to be a lot closer than originally handicapped, but mostly because Ashby's arm blew out and Delgado turned in a merely mortal season in 2001. A year later, Sweeney and Penny look like full value for Delgado, but Luis Rivas still might not be worth Ashby and Jiminez.

Madiba United send Brett Tomko
Antioch Wizards send Rich Garces

Antioch just got Garces for Carpenter. True, Russ Ortiz is nothing special as a 5th pitcher, and the bullpen is still 6 deep, but unless Tomko is signable, there isn't too much point here. Why not let Tanyon Sturze throw those Tomko games? If Garces successfully takes the closer role for MadU from Dave Veres, this is a huge success.
A good trade for Madiba, as Garces was signed and retained value. Tomko pitched well for Antioch in the playoffs, so not all was lost.

Madiba United send Bill Mueller, Daryle Ward, and Tom Evans
Cucamonga Orphans send Ken Caminiti, Cory Lidle, Ed Sprague

Orphans drafted the three players in the #124, #268, and #278 spot, so getting signable players like Ward and Mueller is a reasonable return on that investment. For Y2K Caminiti and Sprague are a self-contained platoon at 3b and somewhat of an upgrade to Fernando Tatis. Long term, this has no effect at 3b, since Aubrey Huff and Tatis are expected to man the position for their respective teams. This deal is pretty good for the Orphans and very good if Ward has a good year.
A good trade for Madiba, since Cory Lidle turned out better than Mueller and Ward combined. That might not always been the case, but so far Trade Review is wrong on this one.

Madiba United send Alex Gonzalez
Hollywood Hopefuls send 18th round pick

This is the one who couldn't hit his way out of a paper bag last year. The one from Florida. While even warning track power might be described as generous at this point, at least he may turn into a young shortstop with some on base potential. Not such a bad investment, and it gives Madiba something back on an otherwise disastrous signing.
A good trade for Madiba, since there was no room to sign A-Gonz anyway. Picking up a swing pick is as good as it's going to get. Not so good from Hollywood's standpoint since they probably could have gotten A-Gonz in the draft, and would have saved the signing space.

Detroit Wheels trade Jason Giambi, Kelly Wunsch, Mike Fetters
Vienna Penguins trade Glendon Rusch, Jim Thome, and 13th round pick

With the Nomar injury, it seemed rather inevitable that Vienna was going to invest their first rounder into the Madiba arms race. But certainly there were better things for Vienna to invest in? A real second baseman, starting pitching depth behind Pedro, or a top flight outfielder? Thome's .991 slugging percentage against RHP wasn't all that bad. Teams are still going to bring in lefties to face the heavily lefty oriented Giambi, Chavez, Berkman, Nixon part of the lineup. Even getting a righty might have worked out better. Mike Sweeney, anyone?
Giambi should have been the missing piece to take Vienna to the championship, but Pedro lost twice to Antioch in the Conference finals. Thome, who was much maligned at the time of the trade, wound up near-Giambiish, but the dropoff of Rusch can't mean that this isn't really a success for the Wheels. The pick should ease the pain somewhat.

SIGNINGS COMPLETED (unsigned players in blue)

Dresden Blacks send 14th round pick
Chicago Wind send 17th round pick, Scott Williamson

Unfortunate about the arm troubles which cost the Wind their first round pick. It's like selling Cisco Systems a little late, but at least there's some money left over. The 14th is likely to be in the mid 30's (think Wade Miller, #38), while the 17th is likely to be in the mid 90's (think John VanderWal, #98). That ought to make both teams happy.
Bad trade for the Blacks, since Williamson pitched so badly for Dresden, he couldn't even crack the playoff roster. Chicago improves their #80 pick to #36 overall.

Madiba United send Bill Simas
Rio Salado Scorpions send Quilvio Veras

Bad deal for Scorpions. Although Quilvio was unsigned, he was taken 44th overall and could have probably fetched a better reliever. Veras won't see much playing time behind Jeff Kent, but should be a useful pinchhitter vs LHP. While Alicea, drafted 62nd, was playing more and playing better, Rio Salado could have probably gotten better than a reliever who was drafted no better than 256th. Plus, the Scorps probably have better arms in unused Ray King and Tony McKnight. Choice isn't always a good thing.
Veras was a good pickup for Madiba, going .363 overall and 3-3 in the playoffs. Simas pitched well for the remainder of the regular season, but was killed by Madiba in the playoffs. Neither were signed.

Carolina Hurricanes trade Curt Schilling, Chris Brock
Hollywood Hopefuls trade 13th round, 19th round, and Mark Buehrle, Pete Harnisch

Carolina management might have been right in assessing that their trips to the World Series in 98 and 99 were Florida Marlinish, and have pulled the plug on the team for the near future. This now makes for the disposal of Kent, Bordick, Burba, Leiter, and Schilling, the sum of whom might have been able to turn around a losing record. The incomings are far from set now, but Carolina does have 5 first round picks. Getting players back like Schilling and Kent will be the key to getting back to where they once were.

For Hollywood, it represents throwing their last chip towards their 2000 roster. It's interesting that they chose to spend it on a 4th starter; after all replacing Harnisch with Schilling in the playoff rotation isn't going to be as seminal an event as, say, fixing a second division offense. It's interesting that for the three teams who've recently traded their 13th picks, none went to fixes: all went to upgrades of already perfectly functioning parts.

A 13th round pick is more than the current difference between Buehrle and Schilling, so Carolina is ahead a year later. But the development of Buehrle was pretty lucky, wasn't it?

Dresden Blacks trade 13th round, John Wasdin, Mark Guthrie,
Detroit Wheels trade 18th round, Jeff D'Amico, Steve Kline

Blacks make their last playoff push by sending their 13th. Among the 6 teams with the best W/L records, only Antioch and Rosehaven have their 13th left. Whereas additions like Giambi and Delgado only represent marginal upgrades to unbroken 1B situations, the addition of D'Amico represents a significant upgrade to a rather mediocre Dresden staff. While Jeff has only 9 remaining regular season starts, his presence in the playoff rotation obviates the need to carry Bobby Jones and reduces either Kenny Rogers or Kevin Millwood to one start. Furthermore, the Blacks pick up one net player by getting a signed player and an 18th. The downside, of course, is that Jeff D'Amico's injury problems don't go away and the signed player becomes a signed albatross. Detroit now has 4 first round picks, only trailing Carolina's 5, but aside from their own, none are likely to be in the top 2/3 of the first round.
D'Amico got hurt again delaying his return; he was terrible after he returned; and the Blacks lost his playoff start against Vienna in game two. In short, it didn't work out for the Blacks. The Blacks were still able to get a pick for D'Amico so at the end it was a #109, a #148, and a nice try for a #21.

Hollywood Hopefuls trade Tom Glavine
Kiev Cossacks trade 14th round, Barry Larkin and Omar Olivares

From this year's perspective, the trade for Curt Schilling made for an excess playoff start among the big 4 of Maddux, Schilling, Glavine, and El Duque. It's perfectly understandable to throw Roberto Mendoza out there in game 4 in order to upgrade Rey Sanchez to Barry Larkin.

On the Kiev side, the playoff rotation and the rationale is less clear. Livan, Sirotka, Arrojo, Person, and now Glavine all have claims to a 2-start series. The shortstop situation now falls to some combination of Geoff Blum and Walt Weiss. Moving Chipper over from 3b opens up the same problem there. But it's not at all clear that Kiev will make the playoffs.

Going forward into 2001, Glavine and Larkin both look on the downslopes of their careers, but Larkin's is looking a lot steeper.  One would expect that there is still much more mileage left in Glavine's 34 year old arm, but maybe not as much to make a difference as the 14th round pick.

One problem with the analysis above is that Hollywood went into a tailspin and didn't make the playoffs. Larkin only had 100 PA appearances left, and the team only went .500 in the games not pitched by Maddux, Schilling, or El Duque. As Glavine looks like he has more left than Larkin at this stage, the 14th round pick is all that's separating Hollywood from disaster.