Shortstops are hard to find, shortstops hitting 25 HRs harder still. First basemen are common, first basemen with OB% of about .350 commoner still. Yet Konerko is in his prime and improving, while Hernandez can't be thought of as anything other than a short term fix. Tony Batista returns to SS for the Blacks, at least for the time being.
Good trade for Lakewood, since pitching - - especially young pitching - - is always at a premium. Granted, a 4.75 ERA in Dodger Stadium is nothing special, but the H/IP and K/W ratios are decent. While Todd Walker fills a hole, he's nothing special.
For Hollywood, it's a nifty trick: the Hopefuls get essentially a corner outfielder in return with the same stats, and pick up a useful starting pitcher. The problem is that these two represent Holywood's 3rd and 4th best players (behind Maddux and Schilling). Sycamore needed another season to rebuild, and nabbing Pat Burrell is not without its risks. The downside is that he becomes another Ben Grieve, the upside can make the trade worthwhile.
Konerko didn't really fit in with the Blacks' predominantly RH hitting lineup, but he's young and represents some upside potential. Still, coupled with the last trade, the Blacks essentially get a top 30 pick for Jose Hernandez. Jose cracked the top 30 in 1998 (27th), so he's been there before. (Post-mortem: Blacks took Carlos Pena with the pick, who was shipped off pretty quickly for Kevin Brown. Brown brought in more useful material later.)
To the Flatlanders he is a prospect; to the Blacks, a gamble which didn't work out. Although Jeff helped the Blacks to the playoffs, he didn't win his start against Vienna, and the Blacks have an 18th (from the earlier trade) and a 20th (here) to show for him against the investment of the 13th.
Good trade for the Wheels, since they pick up a pitcher relatively cheaply. Lee wasn't going to spend the year as Thome's defensive caddy, and Ritchie fits nicely in the #2 spot in the rotation. While with Bonds, Sheffield, and Shawn Green Pocono didn't need too much more offense from 1B (and didn't get it) it will be hard to replace Ritchie's innings in the rotation. Pocono got the innings back by using the 17th round pick on Chad Durbin, but the downgrade from Ritchie to Durbin to pick up a fairly pedestrian first baseman doesn't seem all that exciting.
I've always been confused about Chris Carpenter, since there was a Cris Carpenter who pitched for a few teams in the mid-90s. This Chris Carpenter who made his Blue Jays debut in 1998 and allowed 887 hits in 715 innings since. In any case, such ordinary stats begat two fairly ordinary players. But 3B is a down position this year, and I've always been a Rusty Greer fan. To that extent, I like Lakewood's side of the deal.
The second pick, of course is Adam Dunn, and the represent very similar players: young LH hitting corner outfielders. The 40th pick represents the 300 PA difference in current value. The key for Vienna is that Dunn is 21. He could be awesome going forward, but there are never guarantees on that. And it's not like Berkman (25) isn't coming into his peak years either. The #40 was Dmitri Young, taken by Grand Mound as part of the trade of Randy Johnson.
There's a wider reputational gulf than statistical gulf between these two players. While the headline numbers of 16-11, 3.09 are sumptin', the underlying numbers are virtually identical. This shouldn't be wide enough to warrant the difference between the 21st and 65th picks. But, as the 21st turned out to be Juan Cruz, and the 65th a panic pick of Benito Santiago, Grand Mound should feel fairly good about this one.
Under article 8, section 3 of the league constitution, the trade was rejected as being unbalanced and detrimental to the league. This is the first time I remember this being invoked. While it is true that new management conceded that Crimea needed to rebuild, it is highly doubtful that this represented full and fair value for their two best players. The trade was later recast to include Madiba including Lorenzo Barcelo, but he's a marginal signee at best and really doesn't do much to alter the fact that this was a bad trade.
Sycamore passed up Sabathia and Suzuki to take Beckett, which may or may not be right a couple of years from now. Normally, when a team gets 3 picks of this caliber, they picks current value. Not New York, who now has about 10 pitchers possibly worth signing, of which 8 are starters.
Randy is 37 or so, and GMG picks up some useful stuff. Critics might deride this for claiming that Randy was traded for a platoon outfielder, a never-was pitcher, and a Grade B draft pick, but this has the potential to work out in the long run.
Downgrading Kent to Menechino for a couple of lefty relievers wouldn't normally be a good idea, but the overhang was created by the Alomar trade. Vienna starts the season very thin.
OK. I guess the Jose Acevedo fan club is happy. Vienna gets Tim Worrell and Graeme Lloyd, so one suspects that quantity wins out at this level.
Very good deal for the Flatlanders, who add a top caliber player without giving up much of anything. Sure, Clement might be useful one day, but it's not today. The picks turn out to be Aaron Rowand, Eric Hiljus, and Casey Fossum, which essentially gives the Cannons a lot of players to sort through.
Sticks took McGriff in the draft, making Sweeney expendable. It's a solid strategy for the Sticks; however, this ages the team considerably.
Bell, a failed 2000 first round pick, at least fetches more in Delucci than Piatt fetched for Springfield. I'm not much of a Bell fan and as such, my vote goes to the Hurricanes.
Looks like a bad trade from the Greencastle view. While the raw numbers for Ortiz and Pierre looks promising for youngsters, the fact is that Bernie is a franchise player and these guys probably aren't. This even comes after a league discussion on precisely this topic.
Greencastle Cannons send Moises Alou, Tino Martinez, Jose Valentin, Jeff Nelson, Pat Hentgen, Andy Benes,
RIO 30th,VIE 30th
Portland Crush send Adrian Beltre, Mark Kotsay, Randall Simon, Sean Lowe,
Abraham Nunez, Matt Mantei, POR 25th,POR 29th,POR 30th
As much as I like Adrian Beltre and Mark Kotsay, trading most of your team for that is folly. This deal confirms the previous Bernie Williams for Juan Pierre trade was a bad one. After a good draft, Greencastle has backed themselves into a corner without prospects at first base or shortstop, hardly an outfielder capable of hitting 20 homers, and a bunch of pitchers who had been brighter prospects in the past.
From the Portland perspective, new management has ended the slash and burn experiment of 1998, which led to a then worst 42 win season (expansion Sycamore shattered that last year). As of now, Valentin, Martinez, and Alou all move into the starting lineup (3b, 1b, and rf), Nelson joins what might now be the league's best bullpen, and Hentgen adds some peripheral starts. The Crush probably still don't have enough to chase Carolina or Madiba, but the Forbes Division, last year's worst, might have 3 playoff teams.
Portland knew the slash and burn method is a bad idea, and took advantage of new ownership that didn't.
Greencastle Cannons send
Roger Cedeno, 31st round pick
Detroit Wheels send Torii Hunter, 27th round pick
While Roger has a slightly better EQA, a lot of that is due to his 55 SBs. But Roger can't really play CF, which means that Hunter has to be more or less of equivalent value. Add to that the draft pick upgrade, the 1 year age difference, and the relative trajectories of their careers, and I like Greencastle's side of this a bit better.
Lakewood Pointed
Sticks send Ichiro Suzuki and Victor Santos
Rio Solado Scorpions send Mike Cameron, Kevin Appier, and Tyler Houston
The cheap analysis would conclude that Ichiro is overrated and Cameron is underrated and that Lakewood gained an Appier. But, friends and neighbors, you wouldn't have read this far down if all you were expecting was cheap commentary. While it is true that the difference of .004 EQA and 100 PA is more than offset by Cameron's superior defense, there's a strong school of thought that Cameron is peaking, while Ichiro is a lock to post another 5 years of 200 hit seasons.
Regardless, this is a better trade for Lakewood. Three reasons. One, Appier. Two, Lakewood can now part with Carl Everett and hawk him as a prospect. And not least, despite all those nice things I said about Ichiro, the Sticks made the right decision, ignored the hype, and kept the RF in Abreu who's better suited for the team.
Greencastle Cannons send
Aaron Rowand, Jason Grilli, 33rd round, 34th round
Kiev Cossacks send Steve Cox, 29th round, 31st round
With Steve Cox really the only one of the three a heavy favorite to get playing time next year, this should be a net plus for the Cannons. Rowand does have some limited use, and also has signing potential, but overall, I'd rather have Cox.
Greencastle Cannons send
Jason Isringhausen, Jason Bere, Abraham Nunez, Matt Mantei, 35th
Rosehaven River Dogs send Odalis Perez, Ismael Valdes, Mac Suzuki, Alex Arias
While Isringhausen and Bere aren't Goose Gossage and Jim Palmer, they represent a big upside over anything Greencastle gets in return. While Odalis Perez might turn in some decent stats in Dodger Stadium, and Ismael Valdes has had his good seasons, neither all that well suited for a playoff bound team. Rosehaven looks like a favorite to repeat their WS championship.
Eric was drafted #201 and Stewart #306, meaning the net value of Encarnacion isn't all that much. As it should be.
DRAFT CONCLUDED
Crimea won't have too many games to save, so this is wishful thinking. As they don't have too many players to keep either, restricting themselves to 13 signees isn't all that tough either, but this year the pick brought in Jeff Zimmerman, and hoping Uggie has a 2002 season like 2001 Zimmie isn't really worth the risk.
Similarly offensively challenged shortstops, Crimea picks up 9 years of mediocrity for two fairly mediocre relievers. Well, not exactly fair. Renteria always seems to have some potential, while von Poppel and Plesac have the potential to round out an excellent bullpen.
Travis may still have a good year or two in him, making this a bargain, but anyone with an O+S of .662 on the wrong side of 30 has to be considered a considerable signing risk.
Vienna manages to trade a bunch of baggage (see earlier pick) for 1st round pick, using the vehicle of Kent. Kiev should have a team capable of winning 90 games, so the pick is not going to be all that wonderful.
A feel good trade for Kiev, although it leaves them woefully short of options should they need to make the final push for the playoffs. Pierzynski is a young catcher with a decent OB%, but has to be considered somewhat of a surprise. Even if the playoff spot doesn't work out, they can console themselves by having a young catcher who has decent OB%. And if his OB% drops, they can always console themselves by having given it a couple of good shots. I prefer Sycamore's side.
Roy Gonzalez takes over Cucamonga Orphans ->
After the trade that sent away Tino Martinez, Moises Alou and much much more to Portland for not much more than Kotsay and Beltre, Greencastle turns around and sends Kotsay for a Tino lookalike in John Olerud. One supposes that this casts doubts on Steve Cox's potential. In any case, the Cannons are now left with Torii Hunter and Juan Pierre as signing locks, and signing a 3rd outfielder from Byrnes or Encarnacion comes with considerable risk. Whatever, Olerud is a good player and a 20th instead of a 24th is a nice pickup as well.
From Crimea's standpoint, Olerud may or may not be missed, depending on the immediate progress of Nick Johnson. This year's slack will be picked up by Brian Daubach, who looked a little out of place in the outfield. As such, this make sense structurally for the Tatars, even if it appears that they've undervalued a hitter with a .320 EQA.
Greencastle Cannons
send Torii Hunter, Kelly Stinnett, Kevin Young, Alex Arias and # 28
Cucamonga Orphans send Daryle Ward, Brook Fordyce, Craig Paquette, Mike Darr and
#24
Mostly a case of rearranging the deckchairs on two sinking ocean liners. Both the Orphans and Cannons were in last place in their divisions at the time of the trade. The Orphans get arguably the best player in the deal (Torii Hunter, drafted 44th), an upgrade at catcher (sacrificing 107 plate appearances), and two fillers. Between Paquette, Darr, and Ward the Cannons pick up a little flexibility in 2001, but at the end of the day the Cannons get four players whose signing potential ranges from none (Darr) to next to none. Advantage Orphans, especially since they weren't dealing from strength in trying to deal Darr.
Greencastle Cannons
send Mike Darr, Craig Paquette, Randall Simon
Antioch Wizards send Mike Lamb, Dave McCarty, Jeffrey Hammonds, and #27
Antioch picks up some peripheral offense cheaply. Mike Lamb was drafted #173, and the other two in the 400s. Paquette was drafted 150th, meaning he's better than Darr, and meaning that Darr and Simon are worth less than 400th picks. None of these six have signing potential. (Cynics might say Darr has the most of the lot.) Bad trade for the Cannons who should have gotten more.
Kiev Cossacks send
picks #26th, 27th, 28th (to be 17th & 23rd)
Sycamore Flatlanders send Jeff Liefer and Adam Everett
Kiev won't have any draft picks left, so they can't really afford to make any mistakes with their signings. That said, these two represent enormous risks. Liefer looks unnecessary given the future of Chipper Jones and Bobby Higginson in the outfield corners. while Adam Everett might not be able to hit. Whatever, anything north of Mike Bordick on the depth chart has got to be a plus.
Kiev Cossacks send Bob
File, 30th and 31st (24th after signings)
Greencastle Cannons send Sean Lowe
Lowe has more innings but File is every bit as good. Kiev trades more and more picks to try to recover from their 10-20 start.
Sycamore Flatlanders
send Bubba Trammell
Greencastle Cannons send Juan Encarnacion, 20th and 25th (16th after signings)
Getting rid of Juan Encarnacion is always a plus, but having to donate a 16th round pick to do so seems a little severe. Trammell was drafted in the 16th round last year, and that's about where he belongs.
Pocono Pines Buffalo
Wings send 19th
Detroit Wheels send Jerry Hairston
This one doesn't make a lot of sense. While Hairston might work out, he's of little help to a 1st place team that already has Mark Grudzielanek at 2nd base. While the 19th is defensable, it also costs the 18th necessary to sign him. Detroit just happy to get something for nothing. If the strategy was to deny the Wheels Hairston in the pennant chase, the reality is that backup Mark Loretta might even be the better player.
Greencastle Cannons
send Pedro Feliz and Eric Byrnes
Rio Salado Scorpions send Bob Wells and Orlando Merced
A 2-2 trade of minor players on sub .500 teams, neither with any playoff hopes. Without analyzing this one two much, I'm sure both managers had their reasons.
Cucumonga Orphans send
Bob File, Mike Lamb
Greencastle Cannons send
Cal Ripken Jr and Mark
Redman
Dresden Blacks send
Ruben Sierra and David Segui
Kiev Cossacks send Edgar Martinez and Kevin Walker
With Mark McGwire hitting .120 through the early going, the Blacks had to upgrade at 1st, and Ruben Sierra was a wasted asset sitting on the bench behind corner outfielders Ramirez and Larry Walker. The middle of the lineup looks as good as any. For the Cossacks, Sierra joins a team crowded in the outfield corners with Bobby Higginson, Marty Cordova, and Jeff Liefer. (Things get worse next year when Chipper Jones wanders out there as well.) The immediate solution in replacing Edgar is to use Liefer at 1B to share PA with Segui, but that doesn't look overall like optimising talent. For what it's worth, the Blacks didn't sign the 39 year old (injured) Edgar, while Kiev found room for both their aged players. Says more about the rest of the talent than the trade itself.
South Texas sends
Carlos Beltran, 13th round pick
Grand Mound Greenmen send Jeff Bagwell, Trot Nixon, 25th round pick
Carlos Beltran is a nice player, but so's Trot Nixon. The three years in age difference have to be the driver from the Greenmen perspective, since Jeff Bagwell has got to be worth more than a 13th.
SIGNINGS CONCLUDED Unsigned players in green.
Lakewood Pointed
Sticks send Kevin Appier
Kiev Cossacks send Livan Hernandez
At the time of the trade, Appier was 4-5, 3.62 and Hernandez was 4-5, 5.46, correctly reflecting their relative 2001 seasons. With Livan being 27 and Appier 34, and Livan off to a good start, this seemed like a trade of young talent for Kiev's stretch drive, notwithstanding the Cossacks' losing record. But Appier's not that old, and seems more consistent than Livan, who in some years just takes up roster space. The irony to the trade is that Lakewood went on a winning streak despite Livan's miserable 7.00 start there, and the Sticks would probably like to have Appier's quality innings back.
Lakewood Pointed
Sticks send Tyler Houston
Rio Salado Scorpions send
Victor Santos
Both fairly useful players in their own way, and neither signed. Probably a good trade for both sides, as Houston gets into a platoon situation at 3b for the Scorpions, and Santos helps out in the Lakewood bullpen.
Hollywood Heat trade
Curt Schilling
Greencastle Cannons
trade Ismael Valdes, 13th round pick, 15th round pick
Normally, I'm not in favor of trading talent for picks, but if any team can spare Curt Schilling, it's Hollywood, given the development of Vincente Padilla and the return of El Duque. The Heat can't seem to find a hitter north of .250 and the picks will come in handy to repair an offense which need not score that many runs in 2002.
Dresden Blacks send
Ryan Jensen, Bobby Jones, 13th pick, 33rd pick,
Rusty Meacham
Springfield Homers send
Jeff Zimmerman, Jarrod Washburn,
Tony Gwynn, 18th pick,
35th pick
Blacks sacrifice their first round pick to solve a serious innings issue, get Bobby Jones out of the rotation, and fix their bullpen. The fact of the matter was that the Blacks are a .631 winning percentage team in the games in which Bobby Jones hadn't pitch, and that compares well with most teams in the league. Add Jeff Zimmerman, closer on the 1999 World Series champs, and David Weathers can go back to putting out late middle inning fires. Blacks give up Ryan Jensen for Jarrod Washburn for the future, that looks like a wash for the time being, while the 13th round pick goes for the Zimmerman and Washburn 2001 performances. A steep price, but Dresden looks like a much better bet to make the playoffs and perhaps get a couple of rounds deeper.
Vienna Penguins send
Randy Johnson, Alex Ochoa
Cucumonga Orphans send Ramon Ortiz, Torii Hunter, 13th, 16th, 18th pick
Seems like a lot, but Units are hard to measure. If it brings the Orphans deep into the playoffs it's probably worth it, but let's remember that CUC is only 15-27 on the road. Hunter, although he seems like the real deal, was only hitting .228/.284/.428, and was jettisoned for the Cucumonga run. I don't see this happening, but having Randy around instead of a 1st round pick isn't a bad thing either.
Vienna Penguins send
Ramon Ortiz
Detroit Wheels send Brandon Duckworth
Detroit now pulls a trade to help them towards the playoffs, trading in Duckworth's 5 remaining starts for about 10 Ortiz starts. With Ortiz outperforming Duckworth in 2002, Vienna will probably trade the young pitcher on for something more useful for their 2002 pennant chase.
Good trade for Lakewood, insofar as they get a pitching prospect and a 13th (end of round) and 16th for five unsigned players. Cone, Tucker, and Rocker have plenty of action left in them as well, so it's not like a complete dump by the Sticks.
Portland's fantastic start belied the fact that they were running out of a lot of key assets. Plesac, Hentgen, and Nelson were just about done, and important cogs like Todd Hollandsworth and Chris Truby were at the end of their line. As such, Portland picks up basically what they need. The main pickup is Arthur Rhodes, but his gaudy stats were Kingdome inspired, and he only managed an 0-3, 2.87 record with 35 hits in 35 innings. Lou Collier has a few good at bats against lefties, replacing Truby; and Carl Everett spells Hollandsworh. Rick Reed spares the Crush the embarrassment of trotting out Ron Villone for the race to keep ahead of Carolina and Hub City, not to mention onrushing Madiba. While Reed won 10 games for Lakewood, my guess that's an overachievement.
With Hiatt and Patterson spent, the Cyclones only get a few miserable at bats out of Saenz. Portland's major addition here is Brosius, as Looper is largely used as well. But Brosius retired for a reason. He could no longer field, and his usefulness was limited to a .513 slugging percentage against lefties. But if that's what Lou Collier was nabbed for, this doesn't seem to be the best set of pickups. Taubensee is a 4th catcher with limited ability or availability, and he'll have to don the tools of ignorance as the Crush have just about seen the end of Ben Petrick.
At the end of the exercise, the Crush still have awkward platoons at 3b and cf, as well as a 5 headed monster at catcher. It will be tough to figure out the right 25 man roster for the playoffs.
Vienna has a lot of offense left with Giambi, Nomar, Dunn, and Chavez, so losing Hunter isn't the worst situation. Both Vienna players acquired in the Randy Johnson trade have now been sent on, and Vienna has replaced the Unit with Padilla and Duckworth. Not the safest of situations, but Pedro is no longer Pedro and a team counting on Kenny Rogers is a gambler.
Hollywood picks up some much needed offense, but this is a team which casually discarded Curt Schilling 'cause they had too much pitching. There are still 8 starters around, but Reynolds and Hamilton are showing cracks around the edges. Torii Hunter wasn't the player most needed by the Heat, since their best player to date is CF Steve Finley, but Finley ought to be able to fetch something the Heat does need.