A major trade to start the new year. Breaking this down by components, Manny Ramirez and Carlos Delgado had virtually identical years; Manny tends to be a little more consistent and Carlos has better intangibles (who doesn't have better intangibles than Manny?). The Blacks soured on Manny, despite his hitting .382 for the Blacks last year, as he was a defensive nightmare and a real plod on the bases. The only real difference is that a team needs two corner outfielders and only one firstbaseman, so Dresden is a little less flexible going forward.
One of the outgrowths of that lack of flexibility is that the Blacks have to "give up" on Josh Phelps. Alas, had Josh been a catcher and been into his 30-HR stride by now, he wouldn't have been touchable; but he's not, and the Blacks get Shannon Stewart to replace Manny, provide leadoff consistency, and the ability to defend at least half decently. And, Stewart is not all that old. Again, Dresden gets a upgrade in the field and on the bases, if not at the plate.
The Washburn thing is a little more puzzling. Pitching is at a premium and the Blacks gamble they can replace Jarrod on the 25th pick, assuming they haven't already replaced him on the 15th pick. It will be interesting seeing the league's most flyball prone pitcher watch Manny and Brian Giles circle under fly balls, but Madiba must have a plan for that.
Alomar is a sideshow. But until Brandon Phillips shucks his training wheels, even Robbie Alomar represents an upgrade. To really contend, the Blacks will need to upgrade further, and will have to capitalize on Robbie's nostalgia value.
Post-mortem: Oddly, neither Delgado or Manny lasted more than a half season in their new homes. Alomar had one season for Dresden at .276/.344/.377 before being let go; Phelps went .249/.316/.431 in one season in Madiba, and fetched Joe Blanton (which says more about that trade than this one). Stewart had two nice seasons in Dresden and even fetched some residual value, while Washburn had two mediocre seasons in Madiba and fetched more residual value. Not enough to make the difference of a 13th round pick, but the pick was Luis Matos.
Pat Burrell hit 37 homers as a 25 year old. Yeah, Burrell's season was pretty bad, and the Flats have both Albert Pujols and Chipper Jones planning to play the outfield corners. But it's a lot easier to believe that Burrell's stats will be better than Crede going forward. Crede hasn't done much in his brief career, but at least he hasn't regressed; hard to believe he's been worse before. He had a sub .300 ob% against RHP. This is not really a quality addition by the WS champs, but then again being a draft pick short, Sycamore was forced into filling a hole.
Post-mortem: We need
three years of stats to finally differentiate them. By O+S/AB:
Crede: .719/427; .803/367; .636/316
Burrell: .731/407; .800/490; .771/592
The trade of A.J. was inevitable, given the resurgence of Javy Lopez. The only question was "for what". Given the scarcity value of durable catchers who won't embarrass you with a bat in their hands, this may not have been the best deal the Wings could have made, but for those who like young pitchers with good K/W ratios, this one's pretty good. See, no matter how bad Shawn Green and Tom Glavine were this year, the Wings are heavy favorites to make the Divisionals for the third year running. But, given that, is Ben Sheets the starter you want to improve on the Wings 1-8 playoff record? In Chicago, while it's hard to knock he Zephs for sewing up a key position for a number of years, it does somewhat leave former first round pick Toby Hall in the shadows.
Post-mortem: Ben Sheets turned out to be worth every bit of this trade.
Not a lot of difference between the #1 and the #2 (Cabrera, Webb, do ya care?). But somebody might, and that's important. Burroughs for the 27th overall is about right as well. In terms of available comparable third basemen on the 27th pick, Morgan Ensberg will be long gone, and Ty Wigginton will be long available. Seems right. Slight advantage to Chicago only 'cause they have the #1 pick and Kiev doesn't . But we really are splitting hairs now, aren't we.
2004 Update: Chicago probably drafted the wrong player in Webb. However, Lackey and Webb are the start of one of the better rotations in the coming years.
Koskie is an upgrade to Crede but a fair amount older. Sycamore has 5 picks in the first 200 to solve ss, two outfield spots, and 2 rotation spots.
Getting an every day shortstop for a reliever has to be a good deal, especially given Lidge was picked up as a free agent. Gonzalez and Aurilia were duplicative in Hollywood, of course, and Lidge represents a sensible investment of excess assets.
Post-mortem: Might have been a different result if someone had had the foresight to sign Lidge.
Good trade for Antioch, as there might not be a whole lot of difference between the 10th and 20th pick in the draft. An 18th ought to get a serviceable reliever better than Williamson, though Scotty may be the one who's signable. He's been available three times and been taken twice in the 13th round and once 57th overall.
Good trade for Seoul, since the difference between Ensberg and Beltre may not be that great, and certainly not as great as the first round pick. Remember, Beltre is four years younger. Seoul will have to survive without the solid bat that Ensberg would have provided, and is heading for a season without much hope of a winning record. That won't get them too far in the draft next year. For Greencastle, it's a puzzling trade, but as 3b is a difficult position to fill, if Ensberg can xerox off his 2003 stats it might not be such a bad deal for them. 2004 Update: Greencastle's worst fears are confirmed. Beltre turns out to be the stud, Ensberg the flub, leaving Baez and Meche as even further excess spoils.
Scottsdale used the pick on Rocco Baldelli. Mueller for Baldelli is a deal that could go either way. Mueller hasn't had too many years when he's been worth a 1st rounder, while Baldelli has some serious power and plate judgement deficiencies. But if Tempe wanted Mueller, why didn't they just draft Alex Cintron, who's younger and a better infielder?
Seems a little cheap for a guy who had the 13th best EQA, but it's a non-DH league with lots of "firstbasemen". And, heck, he's 40. May not even be signable.
Scottsdale picks up a few years and a few plate appearances, but Nashua gets the far more useful player. The usefulness of Mora was that he could play almost anywhere; right now in Nashua he'll wind up in the outfield. 2004 Update: Who'd a thunk Melvin Mora would turn out like the player Alex Cintron was hoping to be?
Following the Melvin Mora trade, Nashua continues to pick up players who have had good 2003 seasons but inconsistent pasts.
First, the outfielders. Hidalgo has oscillated between excellent seasons (2000, 2003) to total uselessness. On the other side, Dunn is as flawed a 24 year old superstar as you can find, and eerily looks like the next Dave Kingman. At 6'6" and 11 outfield errors in 100 games, he looks to be the first Cinci outfielder to decamp to first base. That would be a disaster for the Axemen, who are counting on Nick Johnson for the rest of the decade. However, as long as he's an outfielder, there haven't been too many, and won't be too many, opportunities for a Hidalgo to fetch a Dunn.
Mike Hampton rebounded from two terrible years at Coors to semi-rediscover his sinker, but even Leo Mazzone couldn't resurrect his prior stardom. While Odalis actually has the higher GB% these days, but somehow gave up twice as many homers... pitching half his games in Dodger Stadium. That may or may not be compensated by a superior walk/strikeout ratio. Time will tell.
A fairly even trade with the short term juice going to Nashua, but Exeter picks up 9 years in youth between the two players.
2004 Update: Wrong about Melvin Mora, but right about this one. Dunn and Perez completely outshine Hampton and Hidalgo as early as 2004. Good trade for the Axemen.
Dresden Blacks send Lyle
Overbay
Greencastle Cannons send 17th round pick (#98 Tony Graffanino)
If you're looking at Jim Thome or Todd Helton, this is a bit of a disappointment. If you're looking at Randall Simon as your first baseman, this is a godsend. Overbay had been a bit of a disappointment, but he's young, has a starting spot, and wasn't terribly expensive. At the time of the trade, the only other signable 1Bs were Travis Lee and David Ortiz and it didn't look like they'd last until #98. Sure, Greencastle could have gotten Ryan Klesko for about the same, but his age doesn't make him a clearer choice. 2004 Update: Overbay turned out much better than expected, but we should hark back to signings, when it wasn't clear whether he or Terry Adams should be the 12th man.
Notwithstanding the fact that Runny is hurt and unsignable, it's a good trade for Antioch since they should be able to pick up the extra 100 innings with the pick. They'll wind up with a better 5th starter starting combination. Johnson was a disappontment as former 1st round pick by the Wizards in 2001.
Good trade for the Nonames, since the best player left in the draft was David Ortiz, and Nashua creates a space for him while filling two holes very well. For the second time, Thome lasted briefly in Nashua. The first time, in half the 1999 season, he hit .311 with 23 homers in 86 games, this time it was .356 with 47 homers in a full season. What's a guy gotta do? So he hit .235 in the playoffs. Chavez hit less than .100 and is he being run out of town?
Tino goes to Tampa. A significant increase in value in the exchange, with Hamilton playing the profitable middleman. New Jersey could have waited a little, or Florida could have been a little earlier. Oh well.
DRAFT COMPLETED
Sycamore Flatlanders send
Jose Valentin (#44)
Kiev Cossacks send 2004 Draft 13th round pick
A little arbitrage there for the Cossacks, as they'll pick probably in the 20s as Sycamore will likely make the playoffs. Under the new rules, they won't be able to trade for another first round pick, but they may not have a lot to trade for one.
Sycamore Flatlanders
send Chipper Jones and Chin-Hui Tsao
Seoul Fighters send Vernon Wells and John Mabry
Whereas Chipper is more dependable and a better hitter this year, Vernon Wells is a good pickup for the Flatlanders and the difference is probably worth more than Tsao, who was picked up late in the draft. This could all turn out differently, but it's hard to see why the Fighters felt they needed to move someone young who they could build a team around. 2004 Update: Tsao wasn't signed (and didn't deserve to be signed. Both Wells and Jones had disappointing years.
Madiba United send
2004 Draft 28th round pick
Florida Aqualungs send Shawn Estes
It's hard to remember that Estes was highly thought of enough to be signed six straight years. He was an original expansion pick for the Aqualungs (then the Wolfpack) and went 31-48 in five years. Gets to the heart of the matter why Martinez has only had one winning season in their history (in 2000, when Estes was 11-5).
Nashua Nonames send
Ryan Klesko and Justin Morneau
Hamilton Van Slykes send Dmitri Young
Of course Young is the better player this year, and will help Nashua in the tough Miller Conference as well as the playoffs, one can't help but get the feeling that the players collected by the Nonames (Mora, Hidalgo, Young) are a little iffy in the future. Hamilton had room for the extra prospect in Morneau, but now has to find a way to juggle him with Durazo. At least Klesko goes to the outfield, but there too there's a bit of an overload with Jacques Jones, Carlos Beltran, and Vlad. Not a particular good management of resources by the Van Slykes, but getting two useful players can't be all wrong. 2004 Update: Similar trade to the Chipper/Wells trade but the difference was that the prospect who was thrown in should have been signed. Morneau, one year later, is a more valuable commodity than either Klesko or Young.
Nashua Nonames send a
draft pick
Tucson Tumbleweeds send Julio Franco
A good player for the Nonames to occasionally spell David Ortiz, offensively against lefties, and defensively.
Portland Crush send
Damien Rolls and Chris Stynes
Florida Aqualungs send Aaron Boone
Florida should have done better, since neither of the players acquired should be signed. Stynes had his chance and blew it, and Rolls was picked up on the 22nd round. Boone isn't really signable given his lack of basketball talent, but there were probably better pickins'.
Portland Crush sends 13th round
pick, 29th round pick,Todd Greene, Chris Singleton, Steve Parris, Kevin Jarvis,
Todd Ritchie, Alan Ashby, Pedro Astacio, Danny Klassen
Chicago Zephyrs sends Toby Hall, Ramon Ortiz, Matt Williams, Brian Jordan, Joe
Vitiello, Joey Eischen, Mark Guthrie, Shiggy Hasegawa, 34th round pick, 35th
round pick
More of a merger than a trade, Chicago trades anybody of value who's not projected to be protected and picks up what is likely to be a late 1st round pick. The players acquired by the Zephyrs are major league in name only, as this 'haul' represents Portland's picks traded from 335 down. It'll also wreck the Zephs run to respectability, and probably mean that drafting with their own pick in the top 10 won't happen. As such, it's a but of a squander, and Chicago will have to learn from this 'experience'.
The Crush pick up some usable relievers to join Billy Wagner and Guillermo Mota, and some mediocrities around the diamond. Toby Hall has some potential, but isn't even better than Eddie Perez. Brian Jordan and Joe Vitiello are garden variety lefty mashers, and Ramon Ortiz is a fairly lousy innings eater. The solidification of the bullpen has to be the selling point, but when dealing a 13th round for 8 players, often one is a sure-fire signee.
Portland Crush send
Juan Uribe and Jose Acevedo
Hollywood Heat send Rich Aurilia and Jeff Nelson
Conventional wisdom would indicate that Aurilia is the only useful chip out of the four going forward, but on the theory that Uribe is just starting his career when Aurilia is ending it, this might be a good idea for the Heat. The trouble might be that Uribe winds up a 2b, in which case he has to fight for playing time with Orando Hudson, or even worse that he becomes a utility infielder. At the end of the day, the difference is probably not worth troubling about. Similarly, the difference between Acevedo and Nelson is also not worth troubling about: Acevedo has about half as many innings left, but is about twice as useful. 2004 Update: Uribe became better than Aurilia almost as soon as the ink was dry. Nelson was signed, which says more about Portland's options than the assessment of the shortstops.
Dresden Blacks send
Johnny Estrada
Hamilton Van Slykes send 16th round pick
Given that Estrada was drafted in the 25th round in the 2003 draft (#304), the Blacks get quite a nice return in a top 100 pick. They'll have to do something with it, of course. Before anyone criticizes the size of the investment, remember that Hamilton has had Sandy Alomar catching most of the last decade. 2004 Update: The Blacks sold out too cheaply.
Dresden Blacks send
Brandon Phillips
Madiba United send Keith Ginter
Blacks first pick in the 2002 draft (#55 overall) didn't work out, but they salvage a useful player who can contribute in 2003 and 2004. While Dresden may have repeated their mistake in drafting and signing Rickie Weeks, the prospect of carrying two mistakes was a little too much to bear. 2004 Update: Jury still out on this one, though Ginter looks serviceable into 2004.
Dresden Blacks send
Carlos Delgado, Kevin Brown, Larry Walker, Michael Ryan
Sycamore Flatlanders send Barry Zito, Vernon Wells, John Olerud, Marco Scutaro,
15th & 21st round picks
Kiev Cossacks send
Marcus Giles
Sycamore Flatlanders send Jose Vidro, 14th and 20th round picks
Pocono Pines Buffalo
Wings send Barry Bonds
Sycamore Flatlanders send Luis Pujols
Pocono Pines sends
Kenny Lofton
Sycamore sends 16th round pick
The Flatlanders gear up for a repeat of their WS crown. The Flatlanders had a super team already, but hadn't been playing well, and found themselves in 3rd place, rather than their 110 game pace of 2002.
The first deal, with Dresden, adds a lot of age to the Flatlanders, as Walker is 37 and possibly done, while Brown is 39. The Blacks get one one of the league's top ten players under 26 and one of the league's top ten pitchers under 26. Add to that not too much loss in offensive value in 2003 (after accounting for the relative Seattle and Colorado park effects), and the Blacks net a nifty dividend in Scutaro and a couple of draft picks. 2004 Update: Became a lot closer in the end, as Walker turned in a nifty 2nd half, while Wells had an off-year. Brown looks done, not unsurprisingly, leaving Zito and a pick for Degado.
In the second deal, there's not a whole lot of difference in Vidro and Giles. Giles is 3 years younger and is somewhat better defensively, but the difference is probably not worth the two picks. 2004 Update: Giles getting injured in 2004 puts a bit of a damper on things.
Finally, the Bonds - Pujols deal. Whether or not this was based on a kneejerk reaction after the Wings dropped 3 of 4 at home to the Flatlanders, the sad part about this is that Pocono has done the wrong deal. Pocono has been a quick exit in the playoffs the last two years (lost 8 in a row now) because their holes were so readily exploitable. These could have been filled, of course, by trading excesses and getting a solid bullpen, playoff rotation, or a usable centerfielder (longtime Pocono problems). Instead Pocono trades their best shot at a WS for what looks to be an upcoming 1B logjam (hello Frank Thomas, hello Shawn Green). Within a year or two, if Sheffield is the only blue ribbon outfielder, the Wings may be back mismanaging their assets.
THE OTHER VIEW, FROM BRIAN MYERS:
Pujols has had the best debut of any hitter, arguably, in history. any time you can exchange a 39 year old hitter (who will likely quit shortly after breaking Aaron's record, which might actually happen toward the end of next season), even if that hitter is God, for a player like Pujols straight up, I say that's a deal which has to be done. If there's a logjam at 1B, well... so be it. Green and Thomas can surely be dealt to plug any other holes rather nicely. Pujols is a kid, is a killer, and potentially a perennial MVP candidate. And the pitchers pitch to him to boot. I think it's quite a coup to get Pujols for Bonds at this stage in Bonds' career.. I wouldn't have even thought that possible.
For Sycamore, it shortens their time horizon as one of the best teams over the next decade to one of the best over the next 2 years. There's still Delgado, Giles, Koskie, Prior, and Halladay among the over 30 crowd, but the Walker, Bonds, and Brown brigade isn't going to be much use past 2006. Call it the anti-Rosehaven strategy, but the River Dogs never saw the need to send Rolen and Jeter off for short term fixes.
Anything can happen in a 7 game series, especially when up against Pedro and Schilling.
Dresden sends Barry
Zito, Alan Embree, and Ricky Ledee
Nashua Nonames send Eric Chavez, Kenny Rogers, and Chad Gaudin
Whether Zito's declining strikeout rates and Chavez's inability to hit lefties are indications of flawed players, both are top shelf players. While Embree helps the Nonames solidify their playoff pitching staff, the Blacks pick up a useful Kenny Rogers and a young pitching prospect in Gaudin. That, and the conventional wisdom that pitchers are more dependable than hitters, swings the deal for Dresden. 2004 Update: Good deal for Dresden, as Kenny Rogers will cushion the loss in the pitching staff. Chavez going forward looks like the better side of the Zito trade.
Dresden sends Chad
Gaudin, Marco Scutaro, and D.J. Carrasco
Madiba United sends Randy Johnson
A few days ago, the Blacks looked committed to a youth movement, pulling in Wells, Scutaro, Gaudin, and Chavez, while losing nobody under the age of 30. Then they trade for Kenny Rogers, and now they trade for someone old enough to be his Gaudin's father. On the theory that picking up Kevin Brown off the Tempe scrap heap a year ago turned out far better than expected, the Blacks will try and repeat the formula. The Unit is no average 40 year old, and it looks like a good deal for Dresden, reinforced by the fact that Madiba at the end of the day couldn't sign Scutaro anyway. 2004 Update: This is not a misprint.
Nashua Nonames send
Sergio Mitre
Madiba United sends 20th and 25th round picks
Odd that United would pay two picks for someone who was a free agent not too long ago, and then have to drop the recently acquired Scutaro. 2004 Update: Bad deal for Madiba.
Madiba United sends
Manny Ramirez
Maui Stingrays sends Lance Berkman, 16th, and 17th round picks
Berkman hit .927 O+S in Houston, while Manny hit 1.014 in Boston. That's a significant difference, BUT... Berkman can play a passable center field (important on a roster that has such statues like Giles, Juan Gonzalez, Nevin, and Gibbons), Berkman isn't a DP machine, and his peripherals (fielding, speed, throwing) are all around better. O+S of 078 isn't all that much to pay for these things, and Madiba picks up two pretty useful picks as well.
SIGNINGS COMPLETED (unsigned players traded in Teal)
Dresden Blacks send
Tony Batista
Portland Crush send
Joe Vitiello
The dumping of Larry Walker and Tony Batista mark the end of what's left from the trade that sent Nomar Garciaparra to Nashua four and a half years ago. Batista hit 121 home runs and collected 412 RBIs over 4 1/2 seasons in Dresden; while Walker had two superb seasons (.381/.449/.712 in 1999 and .336/.438/.641), one pretty very good one (.331/.406/.550) and one that can be best described as injury plauged. Additionally, the Blacks won the World Series in the year of the trade, so the Batista memories shouldn't be clouded by OB% of .269, .268, and .251 in the last 2 1/2 years. As a non-signee, in the minors behind new acquisition Eric Chavez, Joe Vitiello (a lefty-punisher) is about the best that could be done for Tony.