With Miguel Cabrera coming in from the outfield, Seoul has no use for Chipper at the hot corner no more, nevermind the 5HRs he contributed in the World Series. Dresden gives up a 17 game winner who has had terrible post-season stats over the past two years. The Blacks will have to make up the pitching somehow either by trade or by draft, but the lineup and bench are fairly well organized.
Postmortem: Blacks get a good deal despite the age difference. In 2006 Jones goes .316/30/102 and Garcia 13-6, 3.79. In 2007 Garcia is hurt. Of course, Chipper wasn't going to play in front of Miggy Cabrera anyway.
Washington Grays send
15th round pick (#55 overall, Mike Pelfrey)
Detroit Wheels send Morgan Ensberg
Way too early to tell, but Ensberg looks like a pretty good pick at #55. (In reality, Rich Aurilia, a comparable player, went #52.) Sure he batted only in the .230s, but the 100 walks and 23 HRs would have made him a useful lineup presence for the Wheels, who are suffering through the pathetic OB% musings of Angel Berroa and Jeremy Reed (and to a lesser extent, A.J. Pierzynski).
Postmortem: About what was expected. Ensberg .257/20/60 though with a stunning .394 OB%. Pelfrey was a work in progress. Both signed in 2007 but neither impress.
Washington Grays send
Justin Morneau and Adam Wainwright
Duluth Dukes send Josh Beckett, Curtis Granderson, Scott Shields, and 16th round
pick (#67 overall, Akinori Otsuka)
A difficult trade to analyze. Overall, there is an '06 VORP gain for the Grays (73.6 plus the draft pick to 75.9), but with 4 of the 5 players in year 25 or 26 on opening day next year, there is a swing potential for any of them. If you had to pick for the future, you'd probably take Duluth's side of the deal, after factoring in Morneau's last 4 months for the Twinkies, and Wainwright's imminent move to the rotation (or to closer). That leaves Shields and the pick out there, and thus it seems like a small advantage back to the Grays. But if IIBL is about quantity now and quality in the future, the trade fits both teams' portfolios. Positionally, it's a bit awkward. In Duluth, Abreu, Utley, and Morneau all all lefties, making it quite a target for managers with lefty relievers. In Washington, the trade chases Austin Kearns from CF to RF and Lance Berkman from LF to 1B. It's hard to see a lineup with Granderson and Geoff Jenkins in it, so the latter is probably the next to go. Jenkins will probably be underappreciated, but we'll analyze that when that trade happens.
Postmortem: Morneau an MVP candidate, but Beckett won 19, and Shields and Otsuka saved 36 between them as the back end of the Washington bullpen. Wainwright a bit of a disappointment.
Washington Grays send
Josh Johnson
Bellingham Pilots send Jason Bay
In just 8 months, Johnson's value skyrocketed from about half a 39-year old Kenny Lofton to a top-10 outfielder. Obviously, that makes some folks wonder whether or not Josh is for real, but Pilots' management aren't among them. While leftfielders are easier to find than good young starters, Bay is slightly more valuable on a present value basis (28th best hitter by VORP vs 34th best pitcher by VORP)... and has more of a track record, and should be seen as the safer bet.
Postmortem: Bay .297/.406/.552 and Johnson was 6-7, 4.52, in 141 innings, certainly giving Washington the short term advantage. In 2007 Bay regressed, but Johnson was injured, adding to the Grays' advantage.
Washington Grays send
Geoff Jenkins
Detroit Wheels send 16th round pick (#73 overall, Dennys Reyes)
Jenkins is strictly a platoon player these days, and is marginally signable, as he looks to struggle to gain playing time and justify his contract going forward. Capable of massive slumps, he's been written off more than once in the past, but at the end of the day there's something about him which is useful (.871 O+S against righties & good D). It's just not that he's likely to be all that useful for the Wheels. Jeremy Reed isn't going to play against lefties, and Jason Lane hit .198 against them. And AJ Pierzynski catches. So enter Jenkins (.133/.265/.214 vs lefties) and the Wheels are going to see more lefties than Hollywood did last year. Though, with the likely choices around the #73 level to be Emil Brown and Corey Patterson, there's a good argument to hold your nose and hope for the best. For Washington, a good reliever will be far more useful than a Jenkins.
Postmortem: Jenkins about what was expected at .278/14/54, while Reyes was the key lefty for the Grays.
Washington Grays send
14th round pick (38th overall, Ty Wigginton)
Carolina Sandlappers send Milton Bradley
Santa Clara Leopardos
send Carlos Beltran
Washington Grays send 13th round pick (Cole Hamels), Milton Bradley, and 27th
round pick (#348 overall)
Drafting and holding a Delmon Young is a luxury pennant contending teams can't afford when the alternative is a player of Beltran's calibre. Washington gets their man at the expense of their first two picks and returns Curtis Granderson to the trading block. Presumably, picking up Bradley had been agreed as the additional cost for Beltran beforehand, but it's odd that Santa Clara just as soon wouldn't have rather had the pick. Carolina still has Jermaine Dye to play RF. Casey Blake, another RF, may be called upon to slot in for the injured 1B Derrek Lee.
Postmortem: Still a little cheap for Beltran, even though Hamels is the real deal. The Milton Bradley part of both deals is the short end.
Detroit Wheels send
John Lackey
Washington Grays send Curtis Granderson and Clay Hensley
Despite Granderson's weaknesses, one could be excused if it was thought that he would procure more than an upgrade from Hensley to Lackey (about 8 in VORP). On a good day he might have even gotten a late first round pick or two mid range picks, at worst you'd think he might have gotten an ace reliever. On the Wheels side, this is a good deal. Granderson effectively fills a a Jeremy Reed sized hole in centerfield and the Wheels are still five deep in the rotation losing little in the exchange. Jason Lane now takes over the role of 4th outfielder and platoon mate for either Granderson or Jenkins. That's still not going to deter opponents from saving their lefties for the Wheels.
Postmortem: Hensley turned into a pumpkin in 2006 and wasn't signed, though he won 10 games for the Wheels. In Lackey, the Wheels have an ace starter, while Granderson continues to climb the ranks of outfielders.
Santa Clara Leopardos
send Jason Varitek
Maui Stingrays send Tomo Ohka
Both players hope for comeback years. It's a good trade for Maui insofar as any catching is difficult to get cheaply, though Santa Clara will rely on Josh Willingham's games at catcher to back up Ronny Paulino.
Postmortem: Good trade for Maui. Catchers have value, donchaknow.
Santa Clara Leopardos draft Cole Hamels #1
Santa Clara certainly had to do something about their pitching and it came down to Hamel vs Jered Weaver. Hamels had the age advantage by about 16 months, but Weaver's stats and league differential might have made him a better pick. Considering that SCL's top 5 starters are all lefthanded (assuming you consider the O. Perezes top of anything), perhaps the plan is to move the left field fence back 100 meters.
Bocomo Blues draft
Delmon Young #2
Galway Galleons draft Jered Weaver #3
More like it. One thinks that Magglio Ordonez is a mere roadblock to Delmon spending the next decade in Blue. Magglio joins Griffey and Blalock as excess goods in Bocomo's version of Filene's bargain basement (where the goods get cheaper as they get older). Weaver was an easy choice for a team that needs pitching desperately. The simple phase of the draft has concluded.
Good trade for Charlotte in getting one of the league's leading HR hitters and OB guys for an innings eater and a mid level draft pick. Additionally, it turns 1b from a weakness (Lance Niekro? Brad Eldred??) into a strength and provides some protection for the Knights' only other legitimate hitter, Matt Holliday. It was less clear for the Blacks why they made this trade, but they did land on their feet. Getting a comparable player in Frank Thomas at #149, the Blacks essentially added Bard and Chipper (see above) for slight downgrades in Garcia to Davis and Giambi to Thomas.
Postmortem: Giambi had the gaudy stats at 42 HRs and a .400 OB%. But he also hit only .244 and was brutal in the field. Davis wasn't all that exciting at 9-7, 5.06 but did eat a lot of innings. Bard was a respectable .285/.377/.476 behind the plate and was also signed. The Blacks replaced Giambi with 17th round pick Frank Thomas, just as potent offensively and just as brutal defensively, so this should be considered a Dresden win given Giambi's injury in 2007.
Carolina Sandlappers draft Steven Drew #4, Bellingham Pilots take Jason Jennings #5, and Detroit Wheels draft Dan Uggla #6
Sometimes we draft a player who has the potential to hit 30 HRs only to neglect the one who's already hit 30. It was a mild surprise last year when Carolina took Dye with their first pick, and it was a pleasant surprise for the Sandlappers to have Robinson Cano exceed expectations. For a team ready to make a move, Drew's 200 plate appearances aren't going to go far, and drafting Uggla and trading Cano might have provided better value. In between, Bellingham takes the best (now) pitcher available in the draft, nevermind he came off the Jamaica scrap heap.
Texas looked around at starting pitching help and didn't like Nate Robertson or Aaron Cook and "drafted" Curt Schilling instead. Forty year olds don't typically go in the first round, but the Lightning did get a pick back, which might help them out offensively, as they need a firstbaseman. The trade signals for the Nonames that this will be a building year, but with part time pitchers like Rick Hill and Tom Gorzelanny, we should have known that anyway. As for the pick itself, it's a little odd that Nashua panicked into taking Kendrick at 7, as he might have been available at Nashua's 10, given Anibal Sanchez, Nick Markakis, and Robertson are still on the board.
Postmortem: Kendrick's injuries set his timetable back a bit. Schilling had a 15-8, 2.66 record and Hillebrand had a nice season as well at .323/.353/.493. But when you lose almost 100 games, what's the point.
Binghamton Senators draft Joel Zumaya #8 and Maui drafts Anibal Sanchez #9
The mild surprise is Zumaya. It used to be that relievers would never be taken before the 20th pick or so. Then two years ago Brad Lidge was taken #8 and last year Huston Street #3. The conventional wisdom might be right on this, but Binghamton should have fun closing down games with Zumaya and F-Rod, at least the few games for which they'll actually have a real starter. Sanchez at 9 was Maui's obvious pick, though the Maui manager commented he'd likes surgery better than young pitchers.
Camano Island
Wormburners send Jose Contreras, #19 (Chris Iannetta), and 20th round pick (#169,
Michael O'Connor)
Nashua Nonames send #10 pick (Josh
Barfield) and
16th round pick (#69, Joe Beimel)
With Uggla and Kendrick being whisked off the board fairly quickly, Camano panicked a bit into trading up for Barfield, one would have thunk either he or Kinsler would have been available by #19. If so, moving up from a 20th to a 16th seems a little light for a pitcher who threw 196 decent innings, even if he does turn 35 before next season. As for Barfield, it's fairly telling that he's already been cleared out of San Diego. Whether it's to make way for Marcus Giles (who could be had for a lot less) or to fetch Kevin Kouzmanoff (who will be drafted a lot later), that's not clear, but his sub .300 OB% vs RHP might have something to do about it.
Postmortem: Contreras was Nashua's best pitcher at 13-9, 4.56. Barfield had a solid debut at .265/15/64. Iannetta was a bad pick and Beimel had an uninspiring season. All of these guys look far worse in year two. No real advantage.
New Jersey drafts Michael Cuddyer #11
Patriots announce they're playing for the present, eschewing the younger and almost as good Markakis.
Kissimmee Cardinals
send Jose Vidro
Nashua Nonames send Melvin Mora
A trade of two players who used to be able to hit and field. Neither are likely to be signed, and its purely positional.
Postmortem: Vidro a nifty little .304/.384/.404 and Mora .305/.374/.433. Not much to chose from. Mora was signed, largely by default.
Santa Clara drafts Nick Markakis #12, Duluth drafts Russell Martin #13, and Rosehaven drafts Aaron Cook #14, Charlotte drafts Ian Snell #15
Teams drafting to needs, unluckily Rosehaven needs a lot of pitching and has to take a player with less potential and more innings. Martin is an especially good catch.
Madiba drafts Carlos Quentin #16, Tampa Bay Pirates take Adam LaRoche #17, New Orleans takes Matt Garza #18, and Nashua takes Chris Iannetta #19
Back to the prospecting in this lot, aside from Adam LaRoche. All four teams are expected to largely be rebuilding efforts, though the Pirates now have Tejada, LaRoche, Burrell, and Freddy Sanchez in their lineup. Shame about their pitching though. The Ianetta pick is peculiar. In terms of catchers who are likely to be above average 400-500 PA starters the next few years, the list is rife with Lairds, Bards, Rosses, and Johjimas. It's not all that clear that youth is that much of an asset over a 5 year time horizon. Given the last young catcher to hit Coors with hype was J.D.Closser, Nashua is betting heavily that won't be repeated.
Mystic takes Kenji Johjima #20, Kissimmee takes Chad Billingsley #21, and Hollywood takes Garry Matthews Jr #22
Mystic was probably quite relieved when Nashua took Iannetta instead of Johjima, as Kenji will slot right in the post-Javy Lopez era. It might leave a few problems in the Mystic pitching staff, but this is a hole that needed filling over the medium term. Kissimmee passed on Matthews to take Billingsley, even though Sarge Jr would have made a nice fit in RF. But that would have angered the Cardinal faithful towards Cardinal management who failed to sign Matthews last April. Hollywood went for Matthews immediately afterwards to nobody's surprise. Billingsley was probably a little better prospect than Sowers or Loewen, but may take a little longer to develop, as he doesn't have an automatic spot in the Dodger rotation next year, having to climb a ladder that already has Schmidt, Penny, Lowe, Wolf, and Hendrickson on it.
Scottsdale takes Nomar Garciaparra #23, Dresden takes Mark Teahen #24, Seoul takes Ian Kinsler #25, and Cambridge takes Nate Robertson #26
Nomar is a mild surprise, since 1bs are thick in the woods these days. But Nomar can hit, and the Cougars have good chances to return to the playoffs. Teahen joins the depth chart at 3b, but the Blacks are looking at him more as an outfielder to eventually replace Brian Giles. Kinsler proves that last year's #6 pick, Mark Ellis, wasn't the right choice, and Robertson was the best 'now' starter on the board for a long time. Injuries to Colon and Patterson and Clemens' part time retirement necessitated a revamping of the staff, but the Champs are still chasing Washington on the talent chart.
Cambridge Longfellows
send Roger Clemens, John Patterson, and Joe Nathan
Hollywood Heat send Tim Hudson and 14th round pick (#40, Mark DeRosa)
And there goes the core of the World Champion pitching staff. We can sort of eliminate Nathan and the pick, since comparable relievers like Saito and Putz were available on or around pick #40. That leaves Clemens and Patterson for Hudson. For 2006, Hudson had 218 innings, while the two ex-champs combined for 153, with Patterson only contributing 40. Whether 'tis nobler to have 113 innings of superior quality than... anyway, I'm not the Bard. Going forward, there are a lot of variables to ponder: Clemens' flirting with retirement, Patterson's injury, Hudson's downward trend over the past two years. It's all too much to contemplate, and we won't be the wiser for another few months. Cambridge winds up with the easier signing decision (Hudson - yes, DeRosa probably no), while Hollywood as a lot of risk no matter what they do with Clemens and Patterson.
Postmortem: Hudson's 2007 return makes this a good trade for the Longfellows, as the Heat miss the playoffs despite Roger's presence.
Rosehaven River Dogs
send Joe Crede
Duluth Dukes send 14th round pick (#30, Jason Kendall)
It used to be in the old days that a 30 HR guy in his late 20s could fetch a 13th round pick, but there's not too much of a market for 3b with low on base skills. Good pickup for Duluth, who needed some RH power to offset Abreu and Utley. Good deal for Rosehaven, as they have enough things to worry about before Rolen's caddy is an issue. Kendall was an OK pick, possible signable, and covers a lot of catchers' PA in the near and medium term.
Postmortem: Would have been a better pick for the River Dogs if they drafted better. That said, Kendall did go .313/.366/.388 and Crede .283/.342/.509, so both teams filled one year needs.
2nd round in process through Pick 34
Bellingham Pilots
send Vincente Padilla
Duluth Dukes send Bobby Abreu
Maybe a bit cheap for Abreu, but starting pitching is at a premium these days, and Duluth was heading upwind into a sellers' market.
But as this is the end of the Bobby Abreu era in Duluth, let's look back a little at his career. Drafted in 1996 with the 48th pick, Abreu didn't play that year, and only played 29 games the following year. After that, over the next 8 years, he was the rightfielder in 1250 of the next 1296 games for the Raleigh/Lakewood/Duluth franchise. His best year was his .320/34/131 campaign for the Dukes in 2004, but he had led the team in O+S every year from 1999 to 2004 (Chase Utley led last year). He leaves Duluth with 185 career home runs, a .413 OB%, a .510 slugging average, and a .303 batting average.
Padilla, on the other hand, is 37-52 lifetime, although he has the distinction now of being traded (more or less even up) for Torii Hunter, Curt Schilling, and, now, Bobby Abreu.
Postmortem: Abreu lived up to expectations at .288/.415/.434 while the surprise was that Padilla had a near Cy Young season at 17-9, 2.52.
New Orleans Pelicans
send Carlos Delgado
Santa Clara Leopardos send Ronny Paulino
Paulino hit 6 HRs in 2006, Delgado hit 38. But first basemen are plentiful and young catchers are scarce. Whether they are 32 HRs scarcer will be determined, but New Orleans had Adrian Gonzalez and Conor Jackson at 1b and nobody was offering any more for the 34 year old. In any case, it's a nice coup for the Leopardos to cash out on a 32nd round pick last year.
Postmortem: Paulino wasn't signed, so he isn't the long term answer at catcher. Delgado was signed by the Leopardos but it's not clear he's even the short term answer for them at 1b.
Maui Stingrays send Mark Buehrle, Jae Seo, and Toby Hall
Galway Galleons send Matt Morris and Luis Gonzalez.
OK, Mark had a bad year, but this? Matt Morris isn't really any better, hasn't been any better, and is 3 1/2 years old. That leaves Jae Seo and Toby Hall for Luis Gonzalez. Gonzalez' gazillion doubles are good fun for the Stingrays, but he's 39 after all and no more than an average leftfielder. It's not like he'll be missed, and it's not like he really needed to be signed. Hall is pretty brutal, of course, but he is a catcher, and picking up the PA allowed the Galleons to invest in Gerald Laird, hoping his PA would grow. And Seo is fairly brutal as well, but he does offer innings and somebody has to pitch at the back end of the rotation. All in all, the Buehrle opportunity is likely going to make Galway a winner here.
Postmortem: Though Buehrle nearly lost 20 games for the Galleons, he represents the best long term value among the 5. Morris was similarly horrible for the Stingrays at 9-14, 6.18. One year of Luis Gonzalez doesn't tip the balance, advantage Galway.
Santa Clara Leopardos
send Felipe Lopez and pick #549
Scottsdale Cougars send picks #60 (Estaban Loaiza) and #251 (Jake Woods)
Lopez was Santa Clara's best player last year. Drafted 11th overall in last year's draft, he hit .326/.383/.563 covering 3 positions. If he ever does anything close to that, and remember he's still only 26, he'll easily be worth a lot more than the two picks. But when your pitching staff is a shambles from signing too many O. Perezes, then you have to get creative. Craig Counsell (drafted #211) will take over in the short run; the long term hope is that J.J. Hardy finally gets productive.
Postmortem: Getting rid of Lopez was right but Loaiza wasn't the answer.
Maui Stingrays send
Taylor Buchholz
Tampa Bay Pirates send Aaron Sele and Bob Wickman
Prearranged at the draft via a swap of picks.
Postmortem: Buchholz went 1-13 and wasn't signed. Wickman had a decent year and helped fetch Vernon Wells for the Stingrays, so they get a huge advantage, not withstanding 107 decent innings from Sele.
Madiba United sends
pick #231
Bocomo Blues send Mark Kotsay
Kotsay is pretty awful, but Madiba missed out on Juan Encarnacion earlier. A 23rd round pick for a signed player represents Bocomo cashing in their losses.
Postmortem: Kotsay was pretty awful, with no homers in over 300 plate appearances, most at 1b.
Nashua Nonames send
David Dellucci (picked 184th)
Camano Island Wormburners send picks #221 and #247 (Alex Gonzalez and Mike
Stanton)
Dellucci is fairly useful, but for teams other than these, all of whom have a plethora of left handed hitting outfielders.
Dresden Blacks send
Billy Wagner, Shaun Marcum, and 29th round pick
Carolina Hurricanes send Derrek Lee, Wes Littleton, and Ron Mahay
It's the second time Wagner is traded from the Blacks. The first time the Blacks got Darren Dreifort. This looks to be better, since Lee shouldn't be carrying the injury risk. The Blacks also pick up Littleton and Mahay, who should make up most of the innings the Blacks ceded with Wagner. On all levels, it's a good trade for Dresden. Lee is the 1b of the future, as it's hard to see the Blacks signing Frank Thomas. For Carolina, it's a big bet on the present, even though Marcum is a potentially signable starter. If you're running for the present, it's hard to hold a 1b who only had 200 pa, no matter how good he was the year before.
Postmortem: Blacks got good mileage out of Littleton, who had a 1.55 ERA in 40 innings. Wagner had 27 saves, but did lose 8 and had an ERA approaching 4, though a lot of that was in Seoul, to where he was dispatched for part of Grady Sizemore. But Lee was an investment that seems to have panned out. Had the Hurricanes signed Shaun Marcum the pendulum would have swung back, but they didn't so advantage Dresden.
Dresden Blacks
send Jon Rauch
Bellingham Pilots send Brian Fuentes
Seoul Fighters send
Ian Kinsler
Texas Lightning send Bobby Jenks
Seoul Fighters send
Brad Thompson and Jeff Karstens
Dresden Blacks send Todd Walker and Sean Green
Blacks find their new stopper, who was redundant behind B.J. Ryan. Bellingham gets the extra 25 innings, but as Rauch was drafted 126th, either the Blacks drafted well or traded well, as Fuentes' stats (if not age) are not too dissimilar from Jenks, for whom Seoul sacrificed their 1st round pick, or 25th overall. This left an opening at 2b for the Blacks, who needed to replaces the extra innings given up when Rauch left.
Postmortem: Rauch had an ERA over 7 while Fuentes saved 22 games with a sub 3 ERA. Big advantage Dresden.
PERIOD 14
Seoul Fighters send
Grady Sizemore, Kiko Calero, and Jamey Wright
Carolina Hurricanes send Scott Kazmir, Billy Wagner, and Melky Cabrera
Bold moves by both teams. Carolina, looking for offense, sends their best young pitcher, their stopper, and a 21 yo outfielder with good plate control skills. Seoul, fresh off allowing Rosehaven 37 runs in 4 games at home, adds to their rotation. Kazmir is an upgrade on Wright, and Wagner an upgrade on Calero, but Sizemore is one of the top properties in the league.
Though, whatever you think of the long term implications of the deal, both teams benefit. Carolina was short offense, long lefty starters, and long lefty closers; Seoul was short starting pitching, and Wagner is an upgrade over Bobby Jenks. Oddly, the centerpieces of the deal - - Kazmir and Sizemore - - were both chosen in the 2004 draft: Kazmir 13th and Sizemore 27th. Scott has a ways to go to catch up to Sizemore's value. But the upside is certainly there, and along with Melky and a couple more solid years in Wagner, it's quite possible that Seoul will win this trade in the future.
Postmortem: Sizemore is all-world, so it takes a lot of value to make up for it. Wagner was inconsistent in the regular season and the playoffs, but gets another chance to prove himself, and Melky and Kaz are still young and trying to prove themselves. I think I'd rather have Grady.
PERIOD 15
Galway Galleons send
Jose Reyes and Martin Prado (release Todd Hollandsworth)
Washington Grays send Jimmy Rollins, Troy Tulowitzki, and Miguel Montero
Washington always had the Tulo and Miggy chips to play to paper over any holes in their quest for the ring, but an upgrade from Rollins to Reyes didn't seem like a necessary requirement. There's not all that much difference between the two switch-hitting shortstops in the 2006. Reyes seems to get on base against LH pitchers a little better (40 points of OB%), but if the Grays front office was worried about their rather pedestrian 6-7 record against southpaws, the fault can't be laid at the feet of the placesetters, who've reached at a .382 clip vs a .346 clip vs righties. Aside from that, age is the biggest difference, but there's only 4 1/2 years difference and 28 year olds wear rings quite stylishly as well.
Rollins has had a rough start compared to his expectations, hitting only 258/301/296 in 47 games, getting caught stealing 4 of 9 times this year vs his MLB stats of 4 in 40, and making 6 errors vs a MLB full season total of 11. All that seems enough to make him the scapegoat for the debacle in Duluth.
Good trade for the Galleons in that they pick up two potential impact players without sacrificing much in the "downgrade" from Reyes to Rollins. The Galleons will have until July to evaluate each of them for signing. With six front end signings of A-Rod, Rollins, Laird, Buehrle, "Good" Weaver, and Shields, the back end signings of Jacobs, Cantu, Nixon, Nady, Byrd, Crain, and Putz look more questionable. One scenario is that they're just about all dumped for the best 5 or 6 rookie signings (the two above, Lind, Aybar, Fields, Thorman, and Bray) that make up a dozen; and the other scenario is that everyone is welcomed into the ark and the Galleons sail with a full boat of 18.
Postmortem: Reyes kept getting better and better, but Rollins ain't chopped liver, and Tulowitzki should get enough in return to make up the difference. If Montero is worth anything at all, the balance is in favor of Galway.
PERIOD 20
Hollywood Heat sends
Ray Durham and Juan Uribe
Maui Stingrays send Julio Lugo
Durham's getting up there in age, and Uribe has plenty of on-field and off-field issues. Lugo's had enough good years that this could turn out to be a good deal for the Heat, but in the short run the Stingrays significantly upgrade from Craig Biggio.
Postmortem: A lot of disappointment on both sides. All three signed. Given Maui signed 2 bad players and Hollywood only 1, the verdict has to go to the Heat.
PERIOD 25
Maui Stingrays send
Ray Durham and Aramis Ramirez
Carolina Hurricanes send Robinson Cano and
Stephen Drew
It was a matter of time since the Hurricanes invested their youth in more seasoned players who could create a playoff run.
Postmortem: While Durham may be done, Ramirez is still plugging along. Cano seems solid, but short of Ramirez' value, so it's up to the development of Drew. As there hasn't been any yet, advantage still rests with the Hurricanes.
Kissimmee Cardinals
send Melvin Mora and
Dustin Pedroia
Santa Clara Leopardos send Jamey Carroll and Matt Guerrier
Carroll is a nifty pickup for the Cardinals stretch run, while Mora wound up signed for the Leopardos and Pedroia represents a rookie option.
Postmortem: Carroll didn't help the Cardinals much, and Pedroia wound up worth signing and Mora was signed. Had Guerrier been signed (yes, a longshot) this might have been evens, but big advantage to the Leopardos.
Blacks invest heavily for another starter as Texas improves their signing list with Freel and Valverde, while picking up options on Moseley and Sanchez.
Postmortem: Texas is unlucky that Freel didn't work out. There's value in Valverde, and potential in Moseley. Sanchez, too, offered potential, but wasn't signed. At the end of the day it probably won't add up to an Aaron Harang, but it was a risk that was probably worth taking for the Lightning.
SIGNING DEADLINE. UNSIGNED PLAYERS IN GREEN, ROOKIES IN TEAL
Maui sends Chris
Carpenter, Juan
Rivera, Aaron Rowand,
Esteban German,
Rheal Cormier, and Bob Wickman.
Dresden sends Vernon Wells,
Chone Figgins,
Brandon McCarthy,
Alberto Callaspo,
John Koronka, and
Jeff Karstens
Similar deal as the last, with the added twist that Wells is harder to replace, and Carpenter is out for most of 2007 with an injury. Looking at it from a Maui perspective, over the next three years you'd expect Wells to be useful thrice, Carpenter twice (because of the injury), and Rowand once, so anything McCarthy provides is upside. Don't look now, but by Maui standards there's a youth movement going on: Drew, Cano, McCarthy, Anibal, and Wells.
From the Dresden '06 perspective, Carpenter's addition (not to mention Rivera, German, and the rest of the greenies) cements either a playoff run or a top slot in the Matsuzaka bowl. For the future, the the Blacks have five starting pitchers in 2007 without Carpenter and can either afford to wait until 2008 or trade him for something more immediately useful. The downgrade from Wells to Rowand strips the Blacks of their only 30 HR threat, but Rowand's lifetime OB% is actually a couple of points higher... and he's a better defender. And it's not as if McCarthy's a cinch to have '07 trade value.
Postmortem: A lot of this is Monday morning quarterbacking following the Carpenter Tommy John diagnosis, and looks to make the trade a bad one from the Dresden perspective. But Wells and McCarthy are on bad years, leaving Rowand as the only short term asset. That, plus the thingies that helped the Blacks secure a #1 pick make this a pretty good trade for Dresden, even if they might not have anything to show for it the next time Vernon puts a good season together.
Maui sends
Endy Chavez,
Craign Biggio, and
Chone Figgins
Hollywood sends Scott Baker and
Jason Hirsh
Maui picks up an extra signed player, but Scott Baker was still in the minors and might not be worth much anyway. Jason Hirsh is a more intriguing option as he could be added at the all-star break, or he could wind up replacing either Stephen Drew or Anibal Sanchez, both of whom have had serious early season struggles. On the Hollywood side, the players will help the playoff push and/or the push for a good pick, which seemed more of a distant hope given the impending demotions of Roger Clemens and Marcus Thames due to overuse.
Postmortem: Pointless from the Hollywood perspective, since they weren't going to make the playoffs anyway. Given Baker was signed, it's about a 14th round pick for maybe a slight improvement in the 13th round pick.
Maui sends
Jaret Wright, Luis
Gonzalez, Duaner Sanchez, and Ron Flores
Santa Clara sends
Lastings Milledge, Phillip
Humber, and Ryan Sweeney
Maui picks up some options, Santa Clara picks up some pieces that will hopefully move them up in the standings a bit.
Postmortem: None of these were signed, so Santa Clara avoids temptation.