Washington in more of a repeat now mode picks up the older and more immediately useful catcher. Seoul creates a solid staff and gets younger. On balance, Cabrera could turn out to be a number of things, the worst of which is a plodding .300/.390/.520 firstbaseman. That would seem less than a Halliday, but the upside, even without the speed or defense, would swing the overall deal in the Grays favor. Not an easy deal to analyze, as the teams' aims are so radically different.
While it's clear the Heat need a radical overhaul, a little more prospect and a little more certainty would have been nice. After all, these were the Heat's two best bargaining chips. A Smoltz for Bay deal in one of Bay's better years doesn't seem so farfetched, despite Smoltz's advanced age. After all, the over under on each having two more good seasons (2007 included) isn't all that far apart. That leaves a couple of flawed starters for Nathan. For those Bushies this probably evens out the deal. But a .324/.361/.533 line against RHP is going to test all but the most fervent believers. Advantage Washington, maybe even without the pick.
Presumably Loney and Hudson are the centerpieces, the others are now only marginally signable. It's hard to know what Loney will become, though .331/.381/.538 is a pretty good start for someone short of 24 next opening day. His 375 PA are enough to play every day in a playoff series, but not enough to carry a team to the playoffs. Given the relative positions Cambridge (marginal playoff team) and Santa Clara (probable playoff team... in a weaker conference) find themselves, this probably makes sense for each.
With Ryan Braun the obvious #1 pick and Chipper perched on third, the Blacks trade away in order to improve elsewhere. Teahen's not a bad player, but his power shortage wasn't a good fit for Dresden. With Hart, Dresden picks up 17 HRs, 10 SB, and a few months age difference. Upgrading Davis to Burnett is wider, in 27 more innings Davis gave up 80 more hits, 29 more walks, and struck out 32 less. Still, for Detroit, as a #4 innings eater, he'll do fine. Slight advantage for the Blacks, largely because the draft will be deep enough to get another A list pitcher.
Bocomo Blues send
Delmon Young, Kevin Youkilis, Hank Blalock, Adam Kennedy, and Brian Bannister
Carolina Sandlappers send Aramis Ramirez, Ray Durham, and Derek Lowe
Squint hard enough and you can see where Bannister equals Lowe and Youkilis equals Ramirez. Analyzing the difference between Kennedy and Durham is a navel gazing exercise; in reality neither should be nowhere near a playoff team. So that leaves the huge overhang of Hank Blalock and Delmon Young, who, whatever warts they may have, are fairly valuable pieces. They also fill two roster spots, which is not inconsequential when you've signed 17.
Lowe has another 34 innings, but Bannister's innings are probably a little better, given league and park differences. Granted, many think Bannister is a bit of a fluke. In the 3b space, Youkilis at least has an Av at 1b (not entirely useless in Carolina), a tentative rating in the outfield on the playoff disk, and a little more speed and ob%. Ramirez has that nice .310/.366/.549 line but that's really all he's got given his Pr defense and lack of any valuable peripherals. Also, Aramis has a huge platoon difference: 1.220 vs LHP, a rather pedestrian .826 vs RHP. For what it's worth, Bocomo's 4 best hitters (Aramis, Magglio, Prince, and Junior) all have >.200 platoon differences. At least 2 are lefty and two are righty. We're getting off topic here. Advantage Carolina.
Dresden Blacks send
Chris Carpenter and Chad Gaudin and 27th round pick (#358)
Bellingham Pilots send Orlando Hernandez and Jonathan Broxton
While Gaudin is a 24 year old starter who threw 200 decent innings, and Carpenter is a once and potential Cy Young winner, the Blacks improve mightily in their death match with Washington. Hernandez probably isn't signable, but he threw 150 pretty decent innings, especially against righthanded batters. Broxton is a good and durable cornerstone of the bullpen, a righthander the Blacks will need towards and in the playoffs. The fact that lefties are largely useless against Washington, given their top 7 average a .313/.396/.529 line against southpaws isn't exactly lost on Dresden management.
Seoul Fighters send
Rich Harden and 25th round pick (#313)
Bellingham Pilots send Bobby Abreu
It's hard to see Abreu as the centerpiece of the offense in Seoul, now that Cabrera and Sizemore are gone and Hafner is just average. Compounding the problem, Seoul sees their top three "power threats" (defined as anyone who hit 10 or more home runs) all lefthanded. This isn't going to work; expect further trades.
Bellingham can now sort through a hospital ward of potentially signable pitchers: Carpenter, Ryan, Harden, Josh Johnson, Jennings, none of which did much in the current year. Expect the Pilots to lose 100 with the rebound firmly dependent on the correct diagnosis of all those health issues.
Hollywood Heat send
Roger Clemens, Pudge Rodriguez, and #7 pick (Hunter Pence)
Bocomo Blues send Sean Marshall, Casey Janssen, and #2 pick (Justin Upton)
Good trade for Hollywood, since Clemens is really only an unsignable 5th starter and Pudge is an aging catcher with a sub .300 ob%. The Heat pick up 2 fairly useful players for this year. Deciding whether to keep them and sign them or trade them onwards still isn't clear, but it does give the Heat some choices. In any case, they'll have the #2 pick in the draft to console them. That might not be not a lot better than the #7, but it does give the Heat even a couple more options.
For Bocomo, it's not a bad trade, for when you're faced with the hold ratings of Peavy and Young, you do what you have to do to get a respected arm behind the plate. Given the Blues' needs, #7 is probably fine, with either Hunter Pence or Kelly Johnson slipping there. What will hurt in this deal is the loss of Janssen. as it leaves them until pick #149 to start building the depth in the bullpen behind Ryan Dempster. That's Ryan Dempster, not Bruce Sutter.
Carolina Sandlappers
send Delmon Young
Galway Galleons send Troy Tulowitzki
Hard to fault the Galleons for picking up a 21 year old with oodles of potential, though Tulowitzki's upside is similarly unknown. Of course, you might not need much upside off of .291/24/99 opening for a 22 year old. This can't be wrong from the Carolina perspective, as this fills a hole for years. It's possible that the Galleons could have done better, especially if Tulo winds up with an Ex range, but then again none of those players who might have been reeled in might be better than Delmon in 2-3 years. What it does say about the Galleons is that, despite their big raw talent advantage over their division rivals in 2007, they're prepared to take a longer term view.
Hollywood Heat send
Todd Helton, Greg Maddux, and 22nd round pick
Cambridge Longfellows send Brett Myers, Carlos Delgado, and Mark DeRosa
Probably not the best idea for the Heat, as their two best bargaining chips go away and they don't really get much of a prospect. Brett Myers is probably the best bet going forward.
Andrew Hall takes
over the Maui Stingrays -> San Diego Assassins
Christopher Ferraro's Hollywood Heat -> Mission Viejo Monarchs
San Diego Assassins send Kelvim
Escobar and 15th round pick (Heath Bell)
New Jersey Patriots send 13th and 16th round picks (Daisuke Matsuzaka and Casey
Blake)
A fair trade, with both sides getting what they'll need. New Jersey picks up a third solid starter to go with Wang and Blanton (and one assumes a pretty strong closer with #51), while San DIego probably gets Matsusaka. Matsuzaka has a big age advantage on Escobar, which is probably worth the 2007 performance difference as well as the bump in draft picks.
Galway Galleons send
J.J. Putz and 16th and 21st round picks (16th traded for Jason Varitek, and Matt
Treanor)
Dresden Blacks send Corey Hart and 16th round pick (Peter Moylan)
Hard to imagine that a 25 year OF with power, speed, and defense essentially gets traded for a reliever. Still, there's no one better than Putz, and the Blacks have had trouble closing the last few years. From Dresden's perspective, Hart's value was disproportionate towards lefties, and the Blacks' two main division rivals, probably feature 1 starter in 10 from the port side.
Washington Grays send
Morgan Ensberg
San Diego Assassins send 25th round pick (#299)
Washington has no real need for Ensberg, and can find a more useful player at 299; Ensberg can play against LH pitchers. Not a bad return for a 25th, though signing him and expecting any more than one year would be a folly. Post-mortem: San Diego took Alex Gordon at #8, making Ensberg a good complement to the young hitter.
Kissimmee Cardinals send #4
pick (Tim Lincecum)
Nashua Nonames send Tom Gorzelanny and Ryan Church
Gorzalanny isn't quite the same caliber as Tim Linececum, but the Ryan Church addition should more than make up for that. Adding more lefty hitters and lefty pitchers to a squad already heavily tilting portside is a little odd; maybe on the other hand major surgery is intended for left field in Kissimmee's Shea Stadium. It doesn't really make all that much sense from the Nashua side. It may be a view on Gorzelanny or it may just be that building a pitching staff around 2 left handeders (with Rich Hill) was felt to be problematic. On the other hand, Church isn't really all that signable, so it's not that the Nonames are giving up all that much in the switch.
Texas Lighning sends #14
pick (Joba Chamberlain)
Nashua Nonames send Jonathan Papelbon, 16th and 20th (Paul Byrd and Steve
Trachsel)
Done in two stages, with Nashua sending the #14 for the #21 and #79, then getting back the #21 (drafting Yunel Escobar) and sending Papelbon and the #179. There are three scenarios here. Chamberlain stays in the bullpen, he becomes an average starter, or he becomes a good starter. (We'll leave arm trouble out of this for the time being.) Only in the latter case does the deal prove out for the Nonames, but the more likely scenario is Door #1, in which case Nashua traded a proven closer for a putative one, giving up two picks in the process. Whether or not this was design or fortune for the Lightning can't be determined, but now with Valverde and Papelbon, they should get busy trading one of them for somebody who can actually get on base and help them score runs.
Camano Island
Wormburners send 14th and 16th round picks (Mark Ellis and Jon Lester)
Santa Clara Leopardos send Dustin Pedroia
For Camano, the acquisition of Pedroia is an admission that last year's pick of Barfield at #10 was a poor one. However, using two picks to paper this over, when the Worms have such other glaring holes, is an odd prioritization of resources. The trade leaves Santa Clara without a 2b. The only available comparable keystoner, Kelly Johnson, went to Galway at #15. Ellis lasted until #32, so the question is whether the long term downgrade will be worth the extra bullpen arm Santa Clara will pick up at #67. Puzzling, huh?
Seoul Fighters send
Melky Cabrera and 16th round picks (Jesse Litsch)
Tampa Bay Pirates send Miguel Tejada
Seems cheap, as Tejada has really only had one bad year. On the other hand, there were talks about his decline and moving him to 3b, where a 20 HR season without walks would make him fairly run of the mill. No matter. Tampa Bay gets very little: a defensively oriented outfielder who had enough at bats and enough defense to make him a starter, and a pick that's not going to get anything to make them forget the man who was the last original Pirate. For the record, Miggy bows out of Tampa with 243 lifetime homers, over 800 RBIs, and a lifetime O+S of .819. Not bad for a shortstop. Melky should be so good.
Camano Island
Wormburners send Alfonso Soriano and 18th round pick (Franklin Gutierrez)
San Diego Assassins send 14th and 16th round picks (Kyle Kendrick and Justin
Germano)
Easy to criticize this as Soriano going much too cheaply. But let's remember that Camano essentially sent off the same picks for Dustin Pedroia a little while ago, so if you look at this as a Soriano for Pedroia swap it's not too bad. But the problem is less with the trade as it is with the Kendrick pick. Sure he's a rookie, and sure he went 10-4 for the Phighting Phils, but there are serious questions behind the raw numbers. And sure, I could be wrong about this.
Nashua Nonames send
Barry Bonds and a 22nd round pick (Oscar Villareal)
Seoul Fighters send a 15th and 18th round pick (Kevin Correia and Chase Headley)
When people are drafting Michael Bourns and Carlos Gomezes in the #40s it's hard to see how Nashua is get enough value with the picks to make up for the 5 wins or so that Bonds will help them get a better pick in the 2008 draft. It's been a good week for the Fighters, who now have a semblance of an offense after reeling in Bonds and Tejada. Even if Bonds spends 2008 playing LF for Chico's Bail Bondsmen, it's still a pretty good trade for the Fighters.
Dresden Blacks send
Josh Bard and 19th round pick (Juan Cruz)
Charlotte Knights send a 16th and 18th round pick (Hideki Okajima
and Marlon Byrd)
Dresden Blacks send
GAL 16th round pick (Kevin Gregg)
San Diego Assassins send Jason Varitek
Blacks catching improves in the short run and they get better picks. Bard's offense probably makes him one of the few keepers in the league, but allowing over 100 stolen bases per year is going to get you a short leash.
Seoul Fighters send
Dioner Navarro
Rosehaven River Dogs send Jason Kendall
A trade of experience vs youth, reflecting where the two teams are in their lifecycles. Less point to this from the Fighters perspective, as if it's only a backup catcher you need, why not stick with one with potential.
Cambridge Longfellows
send Luke Scott, Patrick Misch, and John Bale
San Diego Assassins send Brian Fuentes, Kevin Gregg, and Doug Mientkiewicz
Inevitable trade where the Longfellows get rid of some of their outfield excess in return for a bullpen for their World Series run.
Cambridge Longfellows
send Danny Richar and Freddy Garcia
Mission Viejo Monarchs send Casey Janssen and Sammy Sosa
Good trade for the Longfellows, since both Janssen and Sosa can be helpful for the pennant push, and the Longfellows give up nothing.
Dresden Blacks send
Matt Treanor
Camano Island Wormburners send Jamie BurkE
Camano Island picks up a few more plate appearances while the Blacks pick up a few better ones.
Bocomo Blues send
Chris Young (the pitcher) and Chris Burke
Mission Viejo Monarchs send Mark DeRosa and Scott Proctor
A needed upgrade at second base for the playoff bound Blues, while the Monarchs seemingly get the better and younger player. DeRosa, signed, ought to produce another year of joy for the Blues, while the Monarchs get the tall Ivy Leaguer who rarely gives a thought to thieving baserunners. It's not a slam dunk trade for MVM.
Cambridge Longfellows
send Jair Jurrjens, Aaron Laffey, Hideki Matsui, and Kenny Rogers
Madiba United sends Justin Verlander, Cliff Floyd, Ian Stewart, and Will Ohman
Guys like Verlander don't come up this often, but it says something for the Cambridge scouting combine that they could real him in with two 23rd round draft picks. Yes, it also cost the aging Matsui, and this will also cost the equivalent of a 14th round draft pick, but this is likely to be a good pickup for the Longfellows for a number of years.